Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz meet in an Italian Open final that has match-of-the-year potential.
The pregame narrative: Tennis’s two brightest stars collide in Rome with a Masters 1000 title on the line. This is the 12th-ever meeting between these superstars, but the stakes have never been higher. Total Italian supremacy is on the line as Sinner can join Jasmine Paolini in the Italian Open winner’s circle.
Check out my Sinner vs. Alcaraz Italian Open final best bet and the odds for May 18.
Sinner vs. Alcaraz best bet
Go to full Sinner vs. Alcaraz betting markets.
| Betting markets | Odds |
| Sinner to win | -154 |
| Alcaraz to win | +115 |
| Sinner -2.5 games | -106 |
| Alcaraz +2.5 games | -125 |
| Sinner to win in straight sets | +160 |
| Alcaraz to win in straight sets | +280 |
| Over 22.5 total games | -120 |
| Under 22.5 total games | -112 |
Tennis odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on 05/17/2025.
Best Bet: Alcaraz to win (+115)
This has already been a massive weekend for Italian tennis, but I think it’ll fall just short of being historic.
Paolini won the WTA title in Rome on Saturday, and a Sinner win would mark the first time there was an Italian men’s and women’s champion at the Italian Open in the same year.
But there is a certain Spaniard who I expect to rain on the parade.
Alcaraz is in fine form ahead of this matchup. He has lost just one set in Rome, as he was able to cruise by Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets in the quarters and semis, respectively.
Sinner’s semifinal victory over Tommy Paul saw the Italian play an uncharacteristically poor first set. He had two winners to 13 unforced errors en route to a 6-1 loss in the opening frame.
He bounced back in the second and third sets, winning 6-0, 6-3.
Was the first set a case of nerves for Sinner? If so, how will he handle the pressure in the final?
Alcaraz also boasts the more impressive track record on clay. The Spanish superstar is a dominant 155-36, while Sinner is a strong but not as impressive 90-38 on the surface.
Sinner’s elite shotmaking skills and Alcaraz’s undeniable court coverage will combine for a fantastic style clash. The hometown crowd can work as an advantage or disadvantage for tennis players. Sinner has won in pressure-filled moments, but competing for a title in your home country is a different scenario.
Key stat: Alcaraz is 7-4 lifetime vs. Sinner, winning three consecutive contests against the Italian.
Tennis picks made at 2:11 p.m. ET on 05/17/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.