A surging Denis Shapovalov has his hands full with the always-dangerous Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells.
The pregame narrative: Shapovalov and Alcaraz are both enjoying quality 2025 campaigns. Alcaraz enters this contest as a significant favourite, which makes Shapovalov an intriguing side to wager on. I’m backing Shapovalov to cover the game spread and will also take the over on total sets.
Check out my Shapovalov vs. Alcaraz predictions for the round of 32 Indian Wells Open match on Monday, March 10.
Shapovalov vs. Alcaraz predictions
Best Bet: Shapovalov +4.5 games (-120)
Shapovalov finished his 2024 season strong and is carrying that into 2025.
The Canadian won at Belgrade in November and most recently won at Dallas in February. He’s sporting an impressive 11-4 record on the campaign and has beaten some noteworthy foes in recent months:
- Jiri Lehecka (ATP No. 24), 2-0, on Nov. 8, 2024
- Taylor Fritz (ATP No. 4), 2-1, on Feb. 6, 2025
- Tomas Machac (ATP No. 20), 2-0, on Feb. 7, 2025
- Tommy Paul (ATP No. 11), 2-0, on Feb. 8, 2025
- Casper Ruud (ATP No. 5), 2-0, on Feb. 9, 2025
Alcaraz enters this match as the ATP No. 3 player and is fairly categorized in a different class entirely from his aforementioned contemporaries. But this wager doesn’t require Shapovalov to win outright.
All Shapovalov needs to do is keep this match within four games. Winning by five-plus games is something even the great Alcaraz has struggled to do this season.
Alcaraz has failed to cover this spread in four of his last six matches.
Bet on Shapovalov to be competitive in what should be a highly entertaining match.
Key stat: Shapovalov has covered this spread in 10 consecutive matches.
Indian Wells round of 32 pick
Over 2.5 sets (+175): This is a nice pick for those scoping out a wager with some longer odds.
Alcaraz has been going the distance in most of his matches despite being this dominant force. The Spaniard has gone to a third set in four of his last six matches.
This is also a smart bet to make with a player as enigmatic as Shapovalov.
Take his win over Adam Walton at Indian Wells, for example. He fired off an impressive 17 winners in the victory but was responsible for 26 unforced errors. Comparatively, Alcaraz only had 18 unforced errors in his win over Quentin Halys.
Shapovalov is capable of being an elite — albeit inconsistent — shotmaker. I expect him to be aggressive and put Alcaraz on his heels at moments of this match and like this value in betting him to take a set.
Shapovalov vs. Alcaraz predictions made at 10:28 a.m. ET on 03/10/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.