The Shanghai Masters is in full swing with two Canadians in action.
The pre-match narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime is having an incredible season, and he starts his journey at this event against Alejandro Tabilo. After that, Denis Shapovalov and Christopher O’Connell go head-to-head in the round of 64.
Check out my top Shanghai Masters predictions for the round of 64.
Shanghai Masters predictions: Round of 64
Best bet: Auger-Aliassime -1.5 sets (+145)
The Canadian is on a 9-2 run with both losses coming to world No. 2-ranked Jannik Sinner.
It’s hard to find any knocks on his recent play. At the U.S. Open, he had three consecutive wins over Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur. All of whom are top-10 quality.
Because of that, Auger-Aliassime has jumped all the way up to 13th in the ATP rankings.
He’s on a serious tear and carries a handful of advantages in this contest against Tabilo.
- Tabilo is 24-18 this season, splitting his time between the main tour and challenger tour.
- Auger-Aliassime has the better record on hard courts (21-9), despite regularly playing the better competition.
- Tabilo needed to play three matches to qualify for the round of 64. His counterpart hasn’t played since the U.S. Open, boasting a huge rest advantage.
These two have never played before, and I believe that also helps the side of Auger-Aliassime. He is a strong athlete who can be tricky to figure out.
I love the value of the Canadian putting together a dominant win in his first match at the Shanghai Masters.
Key stat: On hard courts, Auger-Aliassime has played opponents with an average ranking of 48.0 in 2025. Tabilo’s opponents have had an average ranking of 172.1.
Shanghai Masters best bet: Shapovalov vs. O’Connell
Shapovalov -3.5 games (+104): Shapovalov can be very inconsistent. He’s 21-18 overall this season, but has played most of his matches on this playing surface with a 13-10 record.
He’s 6-4 in his last 10 matches, but three of those losses came against players ranked inside the top 50. He handled business against lower-ranked competitors, claiming five of those six wins in straight sets.
His opponent on Saturday morning, O’Connell, ranks well outside the top 50 at No. 109.
He’s below .500 this season (23-26) and is 6-12 in his last 18 matches at the ATP level. That is not a good run to be on when challenging a top-25 player.
Additionally, Shapovalov is 1-0 in this matchup. He beat O’Connell in straight sets (6-2, 6-2) just under a year ago.
Tennis predictions made at 10:57 a.m. on 10/03/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.