A match involving a Canadian headlines my Shanghai Masters predictions.
The pre-match narrative: Gabriel Diallo has had a breakout 2025, but he should be in for a lengthy match with David Goffin. Tomas Machac’s game has plateaued after making major strides in recent years, although a tidy victory over Valentin Vacherot is likely on deck.
Check out my top Shanghai Masters predictions for the round of 32.
Shanghai Masters predictions: Round of 32
Best Bet: Goffin vs. Diallo over 2.5 sets (+132)
Diallo and Goffin are two players in completely different stages of their careers.
The former is just entering his prime. He won his first ATP Tour title in 2025 (Libema Open) and posted a strong 34-25 record overall.
The latter is in the latter stages of his career. At 34, Goffin’s best days appear to be firmly in the rearview. He owns a brutal 14-21 record overall this year, and will likely end 2025 with a losing record for just the second time in his career.
So why do I expect this match to need three sets?
Firstly, Goffin is playing some strong tennis at the moment. He beat Ben Shelton in straight sets in the round of 64, playing a clean game with 18 winners and just six unforced errors.
A performance like that is certainly worth highlighting.
What’s also worth noting is how he performed in his lone match versus Diallo. He toppled the Canadian in three sets at last year’s Australian Open qualifiers.
Goffin remains a solid returner at this point in his career, ranking 40th in return rating. That’s more than 20 spots higher than Diallo (66).
I expect Goffin to steal a set as a very able returner and make this a close match.
Key stat: Four of Goffin’s last six matches have needed three sets.
Shanghai Masters best bet: Vacherot vs. Machac
Machac -1.5 sets (-105): Vacherot enters this match with plenty to feel good about. He just earned one of the biggest wins of his career, toppling Alexander Bublik in three sets.
But plenty is working against the Monegasque tennis player in this contest.
For starters, Vacherot has had to fight for everything at the Shanghai Masters. He won two, three-set matches in the qualifying just to make the draw, and has now played five sets across two matches in the main draw.
In total, he’s logged eight hours and 32 minutes on court.
Machac, for comparison, has played only one match, with one hour and 48 minutes spent on court.
The skill gap is hard to ignore, too. Here’s how Machac ranks in serve, return, and under pressure rating:
- Serve: 34th
- Return: 18th
- Under pressure: 18th
Vacherot ranks outside the top 83 in all three categories.
Bet on Machac to roll in this contest.
Tennis predictions made at 10:26 a.m. on 10/04/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.