The Ottawa Senators have a prime opportunity to play spoiler against their biggest rival, the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The pregame narrative: There’s a case to be made that this is the best-case scenario matchup for the Senators. Those expecting Ottawa to play spoiler have to like its chances in Game 1. Additionally, wagers on the over and a Tim Stutzle point round out this juicy plus-money play.
Check out my Senators Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP picks for April 20.
Senators Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP predictions
Ottawa moneyline | Over 5.5 goals | Stutzle to score 1+ points (+460)
Senators moneyline (+135): Those who like to bet trends will be looking to ride Ottawa early in this series.
The Senators have won five consecutive games against the Maple Leafs, winning four of those contests by two-plus goals.
Bettors who pay close attention to advanced numbers may also favour Ottawa in this series.
Toronto ranks an abysmal:
- 29th in Corsi percentage (47.38)
- 23rd in expected goals percentage (48.50)
- 23rd in scoring chances percentage (48.45)
Toronto benefited mightily from solid goaltending courtesy of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, but it might be a prime candidate for some regression.
NHL SGP legs
Over 5.5 goals (-110): Let’s dive further into the regression case against the Maple Leafs.
Toronto finished with the second-best save percentage in the league this season (.926), but can its goaltending duo hold up in the playoffs?
It’s fair to be skeptical. Stolarz and Woll have only combined for eight playoff appearances, leaving room for doubt that either can hold up in the postseason.
Conversely, Ottawa could be in store for some progression. The Sens had the third-worst shooting percentage in the NHL this season (7.62).
An uptick in goal output will help push Game 1 over this total.
The over on this number has cashed in each of Ottawa’s last five games and three of its last five contests against Toronto.
Stutzle to score 1+ points (-132): This is a natural extension of the first two legs.
Stutzle was Ottawa’s leading point scorer this season, finishing the campaign with 79 points.
He was especially productive against the Maple Leafs, notching a point in all three contests.
Stutzle has an impressive track record against Toronto. He has 23 points in 24 games, representing the most points he’s scored against any team.
The German forward was heating up before the playoffs, totalling seven points in his last three outings.
Senators Battle of Ontario SGP predictions made at 1:35 p.m. ET 04/19/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.