The Battle of Ontario renews on Saturday night when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Don’t look now, but only six points separate the Maple Leafs from the Senators in the crowded Atlantic Division standings. Ottawa’s offence is rolling and I like Jake Sanderson to record a point. Also, back Auston Matthews to clear a manageable shot total.
Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for March 15.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks
Best Bet: Sanderson to score 1+ points (+100)
Ottawa is within striking distance of the Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning after winning five straight games.
The Senators are getting production up and down the lineup, and Sanderson has been leading the charge on the back end.
He’s got 10 points (one goal, nine assists) in 10 games coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off break and is 7-3 against this line.
Sanderson leads all Ottawa skaters in ice time (24:25) this season and plays on the top power play.
That means he’ll have ample opportunities against a Leafs team playing some suspect defence. Check out how Toronto ranks defensively on a 60-minute basis since the league returned to action on Feb. 22, per Natural Stat Trick:
- 30th in chances (65.64)
- 27th in goals (3.71)
- 27th in scoring chances (30.73)
- 26th in shots (29.85)
Chris Tanev has returned, which is a much needed shot in the arm for Toronto. Still, I’m worried about how the team is defending as a whole.
Anthony Stolarz starts in goal for the Maple Leafs, and he’s been shaky. The netminder has allowed 10 goals in his last three starts with an .867 save percentage.
Key stat: Sanderson has six points in his last three road games.
Quick pick
Matthews over 3.5 shots (-143): Matthews is snake-bitten right now, with just three goals in his last 10 games coming out of the break.
The reigning Rocket Richard winner could break out of it at any time, and I think his anytime goalscorer prop is certainly worth a look. However, this shot total feels way too low.
Matthews is averaging 3.9 shots on goal in his last 10, clearing this line six times.
He’s still playing north of 20 minutes a night and draws a great matchup against the Senators.
On a 60-minute basis, Ottawa is allowing the fourth-most shots (30.97) and ninth-most chances (61.39) since the league returned to action.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 1:03 p.m. ET 03/15/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.