We’ve got an NFC West pick’em to open NFL Week 4 action on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Either the Seattle Seahawks or Arizona Cardinals will move to 3-1 following this game in the desert. The Seahawks swept the season series last year, and a key injury on the Cardinals’ side shifts the landscape a bit for this game.
Check out my Seahawks vs. Cardinals picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4 on Sept. 25, featuring a prop bet on Trey Benson.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals picks
Best Bet: Benson over 20.5 receiving yards (-120)
It’s time for the Cardinals to see what they’ve got in Benson.
A Day 2 pick in last year’s draft, Benson has been a clear backup behind veteran running back James Conner so far. But now that Conner is done for the year with an ankle injury, Benson’s opportunities should skyrocket.
Conner sustained his injury on Arizona’s first drive of the second half on Sunday. From that point onward, Benson had seven touches and 39 scrimmage yards.
Extrapolated over a full game, I expect Benson to see 15 touches or more. After all, he had 13 total in Week 3 despite being in a timeshare for half of the game.
Seattle has been superb at stopping the run so far, but RBs are finding tons of daylight in the receiving game.
- The Seahawks’ defence ranks 8th in rush success rate and 4th in EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com
- Through three games, Seattle has allowed the second-most receptions (22) and the most receiving yards (234) to opposing RBs.
Benson has 11 targets so far, which leads Arizona’s RB room. Emari Demercado is the only other healthy tailback who’s been targeted, but he failed to bring in the lone pass thrown his way.
The Cardinals like checking down to their RBs, and Benson should have an excellent opportunity to capitalize on that Thursday.
Key stat: Arizona running backs have a 23.9% team target share, per Fantasy Pros, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. The Cardinals’ WR target share (37.5%) is dead last.
Who will win Thursday Night Football?
Seahawks moneyline (-107): Both teams are 2-1 with a close loss to the 49ers, so I get why this game is a pick’em.
But I prefer Seattle’s side of the coin for a few reasons:
- The Seahawks went 2-0 vs. the Cardinals last year, winning both games by 10+ points.
- After losing to San Francisco in Week 1, Seattle responded by winning its past two games by 14+ points (including a win in Pittsburgh as an underdog).
- Seattle is 8-1 SU on the road since the start of last season.
The Seahawks could be getting some reinforcements on defence as two-time Pro Bowler Devon Witherspoon and 2025 second-rounder Nick Emmanwori opened the week as limited participants in practice. Neither has played since Week 1.
Losing Conner might be a plus for Benson’s opportunities, but it’s a negative for Arizona.
And the Cardinals’ one-score wins over the Saints and Panthers aren’t compelling in my eyes.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET 09/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.