Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina close out the 2026 Australian Open with a star-studded women’s final on Saturday.
The pre-match narrative: Rybakina bested Sabalenka to capture the WTA Finals last year and has yet to drop a set at Melbourne Park. But it’s Sabalenka who’s a slight favourite, searching for her fifth Grand Slam and third Australian Open title.
Check out my Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions and the latest tennis odds for the women’s final on Jan. 31, scheduled to take place at 3:30 a.m. ET.
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Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions
These finalists are basically the same age, with Sabalenka having a year on her counterpart.
If you ask me who has had the better career or who will finish with the better career, I’d say Sabalenka.
But right now, Rybakina is playing on a different level. See why I’m picking her to win as a +130 underdog.
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Australian Open women’s final pick
Best bet: Rybakina to win (+130)
I’ve picked the Kazakhstani in three straight rounds, twice to win in straight sets (over Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula), and she’s come through.
How could I get off this train in the final?
- Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 matches on hard court.
- That includes wins over Swiatek (twice), Pegula (twice) and Sabalenka.
- Fifteen of those 19 wins were in straight sets, including her 6-3, 7-6 win over Sabalenka in the WTA Finals.
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These two have an extensive history, tipping 8-6 in Sabalenka’s favour. But Rybakina has won four of the last five meetings against the Belarusian on hard courts.
The skill gap isn’t that big to begin with, and the red-hot Rybakina has a very solid record against the WTA’s No. 1-ranked player.
Key stat: Rybakina has won 74% of her first serve points and has only been broken eight times all tournament.
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions made at 1 p.m. on Jan. 29, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.