Madison Keys returns to her first Grand Slam final in over seven years to face reigning Australian Open champ Aryna Sabalenka.
The pregame narrative: It’s been an outstanding tournament for Keys, who now has a tall order awaiting in top-ranked Sabalenka. The soaring American is playing with nothing to lose, and I say she can push the WTA’s No. 1 player to a third set.
Check out my Sabalenka vs. Keys predictions for the women’s final on Jan. 25.
Sabalenka vs. Keys Australian Open women’s final predictions
Go to full Sabalenka vs. Keys betting markets.
Best Bet: Keys +1.5 sets (-103)
Taking a set from Sabalenka — let alone a game — in Australia has been a huge challenge for any competitor.
Sabalenka has won her last 20 matches in Melbourne Park and has only dropped two sets en route to a third consecutive Australian Open final.
A lot has changed since Keys last appeared in a Grand Slam final, when she was ousted by Sloane Stephens in straight sets (6-3, 6-0) at the 2017 US Open. Keys admitted that nerves played a big factor, and she’s now more poised and experienced on this stage.
Keys couldn’t have asked for a better start to 2025. The resilient American, fresh off winning the Adelaide Invitational on Jan. 11, has now strung together 11 straight victories.
In the semifinal at the Aussie Open, she authored a come-from-behind victory against Iga Swiatek (5-7, 6-1, 7-6[8]).
Notable improvements from Keys’ game compared to last season are her returns and defensive play.
| Season | 1st Return Points Won | Break Points Converted | Return Games Won |
| 2024 | 37.0% | 43.6% | 37.4% |
| 2025 | 40.2% | 46.2% | 42.9% |
Sabalenka is one of the best servers in the circuit, so carrying over that strong return game will be crucial to Keys finding success here.
I also like Keys’ chances from serve. After all, she just brought one of the best returners on tour to a gruelling battle.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head matchup, 4-1. In the 2023 US Open semifinal, Keys led 6-0, 5-3 and served for the match before the Belarusian won a third-set tiebreak.
Keys is not your proto-typical No. 14-seed, though. She ranked as high as No. 7 in 2016 before injuries stifled her career.
There’s no doubt that Sabalenka is the best player on the women’s circuit. But Keys is playing the best tennis of her career right now. The best value for this contest is for the American to steal a set and make this competitive.
Key stat: Keys has blasted 54 aces (most in the WTA) and won 71.6% of her first-serve rallies through 14 matches this season.
Picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 01/24/2025.
