The Golden State Warriors have another opportunity to close out their series against the Houston Rockets.
The pregame narrative: Golden State lept out to a 3-1 lead after winning both games in the Bay Area. Houston responded with a convincing win at home in Game 5, but finds itself as a 5-point underdog on Friday.
Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks featuring Jimmy Butler and Jalen Green for Game 6 of the opening round.
Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks
Best Bet: Butler over 22.5 points (-112)
It’s been an up-and-down series for Butler. The veteran forward came out of the gates firing with a 25-point performance before getting injured in Game 2, which caused him to miss Game 3.
Butler then returned with a 27-point showing in Game 4 but had just eight points in Houston on Wednesday.
So what are we going to get from him? My guess is a lot.
I’m not going to put a ton of stock into Butler’s Game 5 performance. Golden State was awful as a whole, with Steph Curry scoring just 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting. Butler (25 minutes) and Curry (23 minutes) sat out most of the second half.
Steve Kerr and Co. probably want nothing to do with heading back to Houston for Game 7, and I expect Butler to get plenty of run on Friday. He played 40-plus minutes in both games that he cleared this line.
Curry should also get things going, given that the Rockets allowed the most PPG to point guards this season, according to Fantasy Pros. That should stretch the floor for Butler.
Key stat: Excluding Game 2, Butler has reached the 20-point milestone in 19 of his last 25 playoff games.
Game 6 prop prediction
Green under 20.5 points and rebounds (-130): Green’s 38-point outburst in Game 2 looks like a true anomaly. The fourth-year guard is getting his first taste of playoff action and has stunk the joint out in the other four games this series.
- Game 1: 7 points (3-of-15 shooting)
- Game 3: 9 points (4-of-11 shooting)
- Game 4: 8 points (3-of-8 shooting)
- Game 5: 11 points (3-of-8 shooting)
Green hasn’t been shooting accurately, and now he’s not even shooting with volume. That seems like a pretty good baseline for a fade.
The Warriors are running out a small-ball lineup with Butler at power forward and Draymond Green at centre, but that hasn’t stopped them from feasting on the glass.
Golden State was seventh in rebounding rate following Butler’s acquisition in the regular season. The Dubs also held shooting guards to the 11th-fewest points and seventh-fewest rebounds per game.
Green is 1-4 against this line in this series.
Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 05/02/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.