Even at one game apiece, the first-round series between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors shifts to the Bay Area.
The pregame narrative: My eyes are on a pair of prop bets for the visiting Rockets, who’ve gotten frustratingly little from money vacuum Fred VanVleet. I’m fading VanVleet and looking for another solid game from Alperen Sengun.
Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.
Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks
Best Bet: VanVleet under 12.5 points (-118)
Here’s a thought: Maybe it’s time the Rockets ask VanVleet to stop shooting.
Giving the ex-Raptor a max contract in the summer of 2023 was clearly a mistake, but the Rockets don’t have a time machine to change that. What they can do is take the ball out of the hands of someone who was arguably the worst shooter in the NBA this season.
Among players who played at least 20 games and attempted 10-plus shots per game, VanVleet was second-last in field goal percentage (37.8%, ahead of only Portland’s Jerami Grant).
VanVleet’s 14.1 PPG scoring average was his lowest since 2018-19, when he was only a part-time starter on the Raptors’ championship squad.
Battling an ankle injury in the latter half of the season, VanVleet’s scoring production really dipped over his final 20 games:
- 11.7 PPG
- 34.2 FG%
- Under 12.5 pts in 11 of 20
And it’s not like his postseason efforts have righted the ship.
Through two matchups against Golden State, VanVleet is 6-for-27 from the floor (3-for-20 from deep) for a grand total of 17 points.
He had seven points on eight shots last time out, a game Houston won by 15. It seems like the team’s offence is better off without him.
Key stat: In six games against the Warriors this season, VanVleet has averaged 8.7 PPG on 22.4% shooting. He scored 13 points in one of those matchups and cashed this under in the other five.
Game 3 prop prediction
Sengun over 29.5 points/rebounds (-112): I took Sengun’s over at 30.5 points/rebounds in Game 2, and he responded with 17 points and 16 boards.
He has now cashed this bet in four of his past five games against the Warriors.
I really don’t understand why his PR line would be a tick lower for Game 3, but I’ll just bet it instead of asking questions.
The Warriors may be forced into fewer small-ball lineups if Jimmy Butler (pelvis) is unable to play. But I still expect Houston to run a significant portion of its offence through its 6-foot-11 centre.
In his past five games against Golden State, Sengun has averaged 19.6 points and 12.6 rebounds (32.2 PR).
Draymond Green under 6.5 rebounds (-120): Green is as disruptive as any 6-foot-6 centre could possibly hope to be, but he gives up a ton of size around the rim.
If the Warriors continue to commit to small ball, Green should be well-positioned to grab boards. But that hasn’t turned into big numbers.
- Green has played 30+ minutes in both games and finished under 6.5 rebounds both times.
- Green is 0-5 vs. this rebounds prop in his past five matchups against the Rockets (since Dec. 11).
If Jimmy Butler (pelvis, questionable) is out, the Warriors might need to shift their strategy and play with more size in the paint (deploying Kevon Looney or Quinten Post, for example).
And if Butler does play, he has enough rebounding prowess to continue to bite into Green’s opportunity. So I just don’t like this number for Green either way.
Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 4:37 p.m. ET 04/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.