With the series knotted at one game apiece, the Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets on Saturday night at Chase Center.
The pregame narrative: Both games in this series were starved for offence, which is a trend I could see continuing tonight. I’m also backing Steph Curry and fading Brandin Podziemski on various scoring props.
Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors playoff SGP predictions for April 26.
Rockets vs. Warriors predictions
Parlay: Under 212.5 points | Curry 25+ points | Podziemski under 2.5 threes (+255)
Under 212.5 points (-235): Both games so far in this series were rock fights, and that really isn’t surprising.
- Golden State and Houston both ranked inside the top eight in defensive rating and opponent PPG.
- Unders are now 6-1 in their matchups this season.
- The average point total in their seven head-to-head meetings is 201.3 points.
In six consecutive games between Houston and Golden State, one or both teams finished below 100 points.
I just can’t foresee a scoring explosion between two teams that have things locked down on the defensive end.
NBA SGP legs
Curry 25+ points (-167): Jimmy Butler (pelvis) is questionable to play tonight. Whether or not he suits up, the bulk of Golden State’s scoring responsibility still falls on Curry.
That’s why I’m comfortable playing this milestone prop despite also backing an alt under.
Curry has 51 of the Warriors’ 189 points so far in this series. That is a significant piece of the pie.
Over his past 15 playoff games — dating back to 2023 — Curry is averaging 29.8 PPG. He’s hit the 25-point milestone in 12 of those 15 matchups.
Also, Curry has averaged 25.3 PPG against the Rockets since the start of the 2022-23 season.
Podziemski under 2.5 threes (-186): Podziemski snuck past this number in Game 1, going 3-for-8 from deep, but I don’t expect that to become a trend.
- Including the regular season and playoffs, Podziemski has gone under 2.5 threes in 50 of 66 games.
- The under is 5-2 for Podziemski against the Rockets this year.
- Houston allowed the second-fewest 3-point makes (12.3/game) and attempts (34.5/game) to opponents during the regular season.
It’s a daunting matchup, and Podziemski reportedly dealt with a stomach bug on Wednesday and shot 0-for-5 from the floor before leaving early.
If he has any lingering effects from that issue, it’ll only strengthen this under in my eyes.
Rockets vs. Warriors predictions made at 1:50 p.m. ET 04/26/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.