It’s an all-Texas matchup tonight in Dallas, where the Mavericks host the Houston Rockets.
The pregame narrative: Houston has been steamrolling plenty of teams lately, winning four of its past six by 19+ points. The Rockets, who beat Dallas at home in early November, are 7.5-point favourites on the road.
Check out my +425 Rockets vs. Mavericks SGP predictions for Dec. 6, featuring prop picks on Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis.
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Rockets vs. Mavericks SGP predictions
Parlay: Davis under 11.5 rebounds | Rockets -5.5 | Durant under 1.5 threes (+425)
Davis under 11.5 rebounds (-136): I don’t like fading Davis as a rebounder, but this is a high enough total that I’m good with backing the under.
- Davis has averaged 10.7 rebounds/game in his career, and he’s been under 11.5 RPG in nine of 14 seasons.
- He’s gone under this total in five of nine games so far this year.
The Rockets are allowing the fewest rebounds to opposing centres (11.6/game), according to Fantasy Pros.
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Alperen Sengun (illness) didn’t play last night. But as long as he’s healthy enough to go, that means he’ll be adequately rested for Saturday.
Davis, meanwhile, played 24 minutes on the road last night. In his career, he’s averaged 9.9 rebounds when playing on zero rest.
NBA SGP legs
Rockets -5.5 (-136): Both teams are playing on a back-to-back, so that factor is a wash as far as I’m concerned.
What that leaves is two teams at opposite ends of the NBA. I’m not expecting this to be particularly close.
-> Bet on Rockets vs. Mavs tonight!
- Houston (15-5) ranks second in the NBA in net rating (+12.0). They also have the best ATS record in the league (14-6).
- Dallas (8-16) has a sub-.500 ATS record (11-13) and ranks 23rd in net rating (-4.4).
When these teams met in Houston last month, the Rockets won by eight. They’ve now covered this number in four of five matchups vs. the Mavericks since the start of last season.
Kevin Durant prop pick
Durant under 1.5 threes (+123): Durant shot 2-for-8 from deep when he faced the Mavericks back on Nov. 3, but his shot volume from deep has really dropped off since then.
- In his past 12 games, Durant has averaged 4.4 attempted 3s.
- This under is only 5-7 in that 12-game span, but he finished with exactly two 3s in five of the overs.
-> Fade Kevin Durant in Dallas on Saturday night
Durant’s ceiling as a 3-point shooter has been extremely low in the past month, and I don’t expect that to change in this matchup.
The Mavericks allow the third-lowest 3PT% (32.8) and the second-fewest attempted 3s (33.9/game).
Durant firing eight 3s last time in this head-to-head matchup — which tied a season-high — feels like an anomaly that won’t be repeated.
Rockets vs. Mavericks predictions made at 4:05 p.m. ET on Dec. 6, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.