Fresh off a champagne and beer shower to celebrate their playoff berth, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at home with another important series on tap.
Toronto (90-66) became the first American League club to clinch a playoff spot, and the AL East title is the next thing in its sights. The Jays, who lead their division by two games, host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre this week with a shot at securing the No. 1 seed.
Check out our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 23-25 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview
The Blue Jays are in as great a shape as anyone could’ve asked for entering the season.
Entering the final week, they hold a multi-game lead in the contentious AL East with a prime opportunity to lock down the division at home.
Monday was a well-timed day off for a team that might’ve had a few hangovers following Sunday’s sudsy celebration. It’s back to work on Tuesday against a Red Sox team that is awfully hungry for a party of its own.
Boston is technically still alive for the division, but sitting five games back with six to play makes that an incredible long shot.
What’s more important for the Red Sox is securing a wild-card spot, as they are one of three teams competing for the AL’s fifth and sixth seeds.
Boston’s three best starters are lined up for this series, and both teams have rested bullpens. We could be in for some chess matches inside The Dome this week.
Starting pitcher matchups
Sept. 9: RHP Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)
- Both of Giolito’s outings vs. the Jays this year were quality starts, but it’s been almost three months since he saw them. Giolito’s 5.04 xERA and .273 xBA are both in the bottom-20th percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant, so his solid results this year could be a bit fluky.
- Gausman wasn’t an all-star this year, but he would be if the first and second halves were flipped. Since the break, the right-hander has a 2.19 ERA and a .170 opponent batting average in 11 outings. Somehow, Toronto is only 5-6 in those games.
Sept. 10: RHP Garrett Crochet (17-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (5-4, 5.06 ERA)
- Crochet has been even better than advertised in his first season with Boston, pacing the majors in strikeouts (249) and innings (197.1) in just his second year as a starter. The Red Sox are 22-9 in his outings, winning each of the past six.
- Scherzer is coming off his worst start of the year, as he allowed seven runs while recording just two outs against the Royals. He has a 9.45 ERA over his past five starts, with 35 baserunners allowed in 20.0 innings. This would be a logical piggybacking opportunity for Jose Berrios, who was moved to the bullpen but hasn’t pitched since Sept. 16.
Sept. 11: RHP Brayan Bello (11-8, 3.34 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.57 ERA)
- Toronto hitters have seen plenty of Bello through the years, and the results have been solid on their side. The Jays’ lineup is batting .299 with a .449 SLG in 127 at-bats vs. Bello. In his lone start against Toronto this year, he allowed three runs on eight hits over 6.0 IP in a 9-0 loss.
- It’s only been six starts, but Bieber continues to be a reliable arm for Toronto. He has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in every outing, and he has a 6.8 K/BB ratio (MLB average is 2.62).
Who’s hot and who’s not
George Springer (DH/OF): Springer still has MLB’s best wRC+ in the second half (206), and his September has been among the league’s best, too. This month, the veteran outfielder has a .333/.419/.640 slash line in 18 games. He is 10-9 vs. both his runs prop and his total bases prop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B): Am I nitpicking by highlighting Guerrero here? Maybe a little bit. He hasn’t been bad per se, but his 14-game home run drought is worth noting. In that span, Guerrero is batting .296 but with a feeble .333 SLG. He’s still in the 90th percentile or better in a ton of key offensive metrics (including xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and K rate), but Toronto needs more pop from its No. 3 hitter.
Trevor Story (SS): In his past 20 games, Story has a .321/.368/.506 slash line and eight stolen bases. He was bumped up to the No. 2 spot in Boston’s order five games ago and has scored a run in every game since.
Aroldis Chapman (RP): Chapman has been MLB’s best closer this season, so it’ll take more than a couple of so-so outings to alter his reputation. But he has allowed two runs and seven baserunners over his past five outings, which is why he’s featured here. Prior to that, Chapman had gone 17 consecutive appearances without allowing a hit or a run.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends
- Toronto has the 3rd-best run line record in MLB (87-69, 55.8%).
- Overs are 85-65-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).
- Overs are 42-35-1 when Boston is playing on the road (4th in MLB).
- The Jays are 50-25 at home (2nd in MLB).
- Toronto is 7-3 vs. Boston this year. In their past two series against each other, the average game total was 10.7 runs.
- Jeff Hoffman is 3-for-3 in save opportunities over his past 10 games, allowing just one run in that span.
- Alejandro Kirk is 5-for-37 (.135) with zero extra-base hits in his past 13 games.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.