Real Madrid looks to make a monumental comeback over Arsenal in the Champions League quarterfinal.
The pregame narrative: Los Blancos will be on the constant hunt for goals, but I’m expecting Arsenal to shut it down and I am taking under 3.5 goals. Picks on Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice are also featured in this +290 SGP.
Check out my Real Madrid vs. Arsenal SGP predictions for April 16.
Real Madrid vs. Arsenal predictions
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Parlay: Under 3.5 goals | Bellingham over 0.5 SOT | Rice over 0.5 shots (+290)
Under 3.5 goals (-177): Madrid will be desperate for goals, but there should be no rush when Arsenal has possession.
In fact, I’m sure the English side would be happy with the most boring game possible.
And that’s because Arsenal holds a comfortable 3-0 lead on aggregate.
I expect a thwarting attack from Los Blancos at home, but I also expect the Gunners’ defenders to hold strong.
Arsenal allows the second fewest goals per game (0.5) in the Champions League this season.
The away side will be without top defender Gabriel, who went down with an injury a few weeks ago.
Jakub Kiwior returned at the perfect time, however, and has filled in at centre half nicely. He played the full 90 minutes in the first leg and helped hold Madrid’s attack to three shots on target.
Arsenal should be happy to play a defensively strong formation and slow the pace down by holding possession. That’ll lead to fewer opportunities for the Spanish side.
Champions League SGP legs
Bellingham over 0.5 SOT (-186): Whether Real Madrid needs goals or not, Bellingham is often involved in the opposing third.
He has at least a shot on goal in four of the past five matches. He claimed one of those few Real Madrid shots in the first leg, as well.
Carlo Ancelotti’s squad will be pressing for goals while taking risks that wouldn’t be needed in most cases. As the game goes on, the shot attempts will get more desperate, but that’s good for this wager.
And I think this is more than a fair price for Bellingham to get a shot on target, especially when his side is pushing for offence.
Rice over 0.5 shots (-205): It was the English midfielder who was the hero in the first leg, scoring two brilliant free kicks past Thibaut Courtois.
Rice has attempted a shot in each of the past 12 games across all competitions. He’s shown to be very reliable against this line.
Arsenal will be in no rush for offence, but it can’t sit back and invite pressure either. If Rice finds himself in a spot to let it fly, I don’t see why he wouldn’t.
He also has the advantage of being the Gunners’ free-kick taker. That can lead to a free shot opportunity on any Real Madrid foul around its penalty area.
Real Madrid vs. Arsenal predictions made at 10:26 a.m. on 04/15/25.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.