The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers close out the regular season with a battle for the AFC North crown on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Winner makes the playoffs, loser goes home. Aaron Rodgers’ Steelers are 4-point home underdogs in what could be his last game in the NFL. On the other side, Lamar Jackson returns from a two-game injury absence with the hope of joining a wide-open postseason field.
Check out my Ravens vs. Steelers SGP predictions for Jan. 4, featuring prop bets on Pat Freiermuth and Derrick Henry.
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Ravens vs. Steelers SGP
SGP: Ravens +7.5 | Freiermuth 30+ receiving yards | Henry under 87.5 rushing yards (+330)
Ravens +7.5 (-715): I think this game will come down to the wire, as meetings between these rivals typically do.
- The Steelers beat the Ravens by five points in Baltimore earlier this year, marking the 10th time in the last 12 meetings that the game has been decided by a touchdown or less.
- The two outliers? A pair of Baltimore wins by two-plus scores last year (Week 16, Wild Card).
- Dating back to 2017, the Ravens have covered a +7.5 spread in 17 straight games against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh could win this game, but it’s hard to imagine by multiple scores. DK Metcalf is suspended, and Darnell Washington is on IR after breaking his arm last week.
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Even with Jackson banged up, Baltimore has a much healthier offence.
There is a reason this leg comes in at a -715 price tag. I think it’s worth adding, though, as it raises the parlay’s value from +205 to +330.
Sunday Night Football SGP picks
Freiermuth 30+ receiving yards (-127): Freiermuth has had a curiously unproductive season after being rewarded a four-year, $48 million contract extension, which kicked in this year.
The tight end has just 435 receiving yards with multiple goose eggs on his ledger.
Still, his 27.1 yards per game average is right in line with this total. And Freiermuth should over-index on Sunday with Washington and Metcalf sidelined.
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Washington leads the Steelers’ tight end room in snap count this season. Metcalf leads the team in receptions (59) and yards (850).
Pittsburgh will want to deploy a run-heavy offence, but Freiermuth is the logical option to get involved in the passing game.
Quarterbacks have a 97.0 passer rating when targeting Baltimore’s linebackers (the position group which typically covers tight ends), which ranks in the 10th percentile, per Rotowire.
Why you should fade Derrick Henry on SNF
Henry under 87.5 rushing yards (-116): Finally, I’m going to fade a player coming off a 216-yard, four-touchdown performance.
Seems risky, right? I don’t think so.
Pittsburgh’s run defence is among the league’s best — when Derrick Harmon is in the lineup.
- With Harmon (11 games): 87.0 rushing yards/game
- Without Harmon (six games): 165.6 rushing yards/game
The rookie defensive tackle out of Oregon is a stud, and helped Pittsburgh bottle up some of the league’s best RBs like Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs, all of whom finished with under 50 rushing yards.
Henry recorded 94 yards on 25 carries against the Steelers earlier this year. But that was without Harmon, and 3.8 yards per carry isn’t all that efficient to begin with.
Ravens vs. Steelers predictions made at 12 p.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.