Lamar Jackson is expected to make his return for the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Miami Dolphins are 2-6 this season, but are coming off a 27-point win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. They will look to build on that momentum in what is essentially a must-win game for Jackson and the Ravens.
Check out my +430 same-game parlay Ravens vs. Dolphins predictions on Oct. 30, featuring Jaylen Waddle and a team total.
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Ravens vs. Dolphins predictions
SGP: Jackson under 35.5 rushing yards | Waddle 50+ receiving yards | Ravens over 29.5 points (+430)
Jackson under 35.5 rushing yards (-113): This isn’t a fade on Jackson by any means, but I do expect the quarterback to be more of a pocket passer after missing three games with a hamstring injury.
Even when he was healthy, he fell short of this rushing total in two of his four starts.
If this were a tough matchup, I might have reconsidered this pick, but the Dolphins have one of the worst defences in the NFL.
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Miami’s defence has the third-worst dropback EPA in the NFL (0.231), according to rbsdm.com.
Therefore, there’s little reason for Jackson to risk anything by running the ball. He should be able to sit in the pocket and make his reads without much disruption.
The Dophins have held seven of eight opposing QBs below this total.
That includes dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen, Drake Maye and Justin Herbert.
Thursday Night Football SGP picks
Waddle 50+ receiving yards (-220): With Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller on the injured reserve, Tua Tagovailoa has been force-feeding Waddle, and who can blame him?
- Waddle has 90+ receiving yards in three of the past four contests.
- He has been targeted 27 times by Tagovailoa across those four games.
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And it’s not like Baltimore’s defence has been good. The Ravens allow the fifth-most passing yards per game (250.7).
In last week’s 30-16 win over the Chicago Bears, top receiver Rome Odunze still managed to haul in seven catches for 114 yards.
I believe the Dolphins can at least match Chicago’s 16-point performance, and Waddle is the true WR1 in the offence now.
Ravens over 29.5 points (-118): With Jackson returning, this is an achievable total for the Ravens.
They hit this over in three of Jackson’s four starts, averaging 32.8 points per game.
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I already mentioned the Dolphins’ horrible pass defence, but they can’t stop the run either.
Miami allows 145.0 rushing yards per contest. That means Derrick Henry could be in for a huge game.
If Jackson’s anywhere near his standard, the Ravens should be able to move the ball freely on the ground and through the air.
Miami has allowed 27-plus points in six of eight games this season.
Ravens vs. Dolphins predictions made at 3:45 p.m. ET 10/29/2025.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.