Lamar Jackson is expected to return for the Baltimore Ravens’ Thursday Night Football clash against the Miami Dolphins.
The pregame narrative: Jackson’s status was up in the air late into last week’s practice slate, and he ultimately sat out for a third straight game due to a hamstring injury. The Ravens won handily without him, though, and they’re 7.5-point favourites with the two-time MVP back in the fold.
Check out my Ravens vs. Dolphins picks for Oct. 30, featuring prop bets on Miami’s De’Von Achane and Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely.
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Ravens vs. Dolphins picks
Best Bet: Achane over 63.5 rush yards (-118)
Will Jackson’s looming return help Baltimore figure out how to play defence? There’s no correlation there, so I’m not counting on it.
- The Ravens rank 30th in points allowed (30.0/game) and 28th in yards allowed (379.6/game)
- According to RBSDM.com, Baltimore ranks 30th in defensive EPA per play and 27th in run defence success rate.
Despite those unsightly metrics, not a lot of opposing tailbacks have actually cleared this yardage prop against the Ravens.
But I like Achane’s chances because his opportunity share feels secure.
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Achane has 10+ carries in seven straight games and is averaging 13.4 rush attempts on the season. Last week, he totalled 18 carries (his second-highest mark of the year) for 67 yards.
The third-year back is 4-1 vs. this prop in his past five games.
Both of Achane’s backups, Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright, saw a fair bit of action in last week’s win. But that was a blowout victory for Miami, so it makes sense that the team would share the love.
Achane still owns a 77% snap share on the season, though, while neither of his backups is above 25%. This is still very much his backfield.
Key stat: Since Week 3, Achane is averaging 75.7 rush yards/game on 5.1 yards/attempt.
TNF prop bet
Likely over 21.5 receiving yards (-118): Likely missed a chunk of training camp and the first few weeks of the season with a foot injury.
He’s still getting up to speed, but I think the breakout game could come at any time.
- Last year, Likely averaged 29.8 yards in 16 games for the Ravens.
- In 19 games with Lamar Jackson since the start of 2024-25, Likely is 11-8 vs. this prop while averaging 31.7 YPG.
Miami is in the top eight in targets, receptions and yards allowed to opposing tight ends. So the matchup is compelling.
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When Likely last faced Miami, in 2023 with Lamar, the tight end caught two of three targets for 42 yards and two TDs.
Mark Andrews has dominated the target share for Ravens TEs so far in 2025, but I believe Likely’s time is coming.
Though he missed Weeks 1-3, Likely jumped right back into a healthy snap share in Week 4. From then on, him and Mark Andrews have seen almost an identical volume of snaps.
Thursday Night Football O/U pick
Over 50.5 points (-110): I’ve already talked down on the Ravens defence, so it might come as no surprise to know that overs are 6-1-0 in Baltimore’s games this year.
But did you know that overs are 6-1-1 in Miami’s games?
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That’s right, this matchup pits two of the most overs-friendly squads against each other. Two struggling defences, as well as Jackson’s return, give me ample faith in another scoring binge.
Thursday’s weather in Miami is shaping up to be excellent — mid-20s (Celsius) and dry — so there are no concerns on that front.
Since the 2023 season, overs are 13-7-0 when Miami is at home. The Dolphins’ three home games this year have featured an average of 54.7 points.
Both of the Ravens’ road games this year had at least 57 points.
Ravens vs. Dolphins picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 10/28/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.