The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals link up in a crucial AFC North showdown in Week 5.
The pregame narrative: It’s not too early to say this is a must-win game for Cincinnati. I’m picking a desperate Bengals side to earn a win on Sunday. An over on a teased-down total and a big game from Ja’Marr Chase rounds out this +400 parlay.
Check out our Ravens vs. Bengals predictions for the Week 5 matchup on Oct. 6.
Ravens vs. Bengals SGP predictions
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Parlay: Bengals moneyline + Over 44.5 points + Chase over 71.5 receiving yards (+400)
Bengals moneyline (+123): This game really does feel like Cincinnati’s season.
With a win, the Bengals will be sitting (at best) one game back of first in the division by the end of Sunday. With a loss, they could find themselves three games back and at the bottom of a very competitive AFC North.
Cincinnati is trending upward after a slow start to the 2024 campaign. The offence has been among the league’s best, tying for fourth in offensive DVOA (19.0%), per FTN Fantasy.
Baltimore is struggling to stop opposing passing attacks, which gives Cincinnati a firm advantage in this game. The Ravens are tied for 10th in terms of most yards allowed per pass (7.0).
Baltimore is riding high after a lopsided win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football, but this team is still only two weeks removed from losing to the Las Vegas Raiders at home.
Other parlay picks
Over 44.5 points (-200): This game is going to feature a lot of points.
The Bengals are well-built for high-scoring contests. Although they are tied for fourth in offensive DVOA, they do place a lowly 22nd in defensive DVOA.
Joe Burrow and company will likely have to keep up with a Ravens offence that has been very good.
Baltimore has the best offensive DVOA rating (29.3%) in the NFL.
The team’s defence has been shaky, however, allowing 25-plus points in three of its four games this season.
The over on this total has hit in each of Cincinnati’s last three games and all four of the Ravens’ games.
Chase over 71.5 receiving yards (-115): Thirdly, I’m expecting a big performance from Cincinnati’s top offensive option.
Chase has put a slow start behind him. The superstar wide receiver had 97 receiving yards and zero touchdowns through the first couple of weeks but has 203 receiving yards and three touchdowns across the last two games.
What makes Chase such a good pick to beat his receiving prop every week is his big-play ability. The wide receiver ranks fifth at the position in yards per target (12.5), according to PlayerProfiler.
Picks made at 10:24 a.m. on 10/05/24
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.