The Raptors head to the West Coast to play the streaking Golden State Warriors.
The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler had a roller coaster of a season but he’s settling down with the Warriors and making an impact. I’m taking the over on his points prop and I have a pick on Toronto’s Jakob Poeltl.
Check out my Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks for March 20.
Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks
Best Bet: Butler over 18.5 points (-114)
After forcing his way out of Miami, Butler is finally in midseason form.
That has led to winning basketball for the Warriors. They are 15-2 with Butler in the lineup, and he’s been particularly good over the last eight games:
- 18.6 points per game
- 5-3 against this wager
He had a few outlier performances of 5 and 11 points that drastically brought his average down during that time, but he’s scored 23-plus points on four occasions during that stretch.
And this is a soft matchup. The Raptors have the 11th-worst defensive rating in the NBA (116.7) and both teams play at an average pace.
That means there should be lots of shooting volume to go around and Butler should continue filling the statsheet.
Just take a look at his averages from the past two games:
- 23.5 PPG
- 8.0 RPG
- 8.0 APG
Those look like stats from prime Butler, and I think he’ll continue to play like his younger self in a place where he’s happy to be.
There’s obvious blowout potential here with the Raptors being 14.5-point underdogs, but Toronto has been excellent against the spread, covering this number in nine of its past 10 games and winning six games straight up.
Even with the tank being in full force, the young guns on Toronto aren’t willing to roll over and I expect this one to be close.
Key stat: Butler averaged 20.9 points in the 28 games in which he played more than 30 minutes this season.
Quick pick
Poeltl over 11.5 points (-112): Poeltl has been in and out of the rotation for Toronto but he’s been effective with his minutes when playing.
The big man has seen his minutes fall over the last four games, playing 22.5 per but he’s managed to top this modest points total three times.
He’s averaged 16.5 points on 70.0% shooting in those contests. With that sort of efficiency, he wouldn’t need many minutes to once again surpass this total.
RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter are all out for Raptors, which means they could rely more on Poeltl on Wednesday.
Toronto can still tank successfully while Poeltl gets his buckets.
Raptors vs. Warriors prop picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET 03/20/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.