Saturday night’s NBA slate features the Detroit Pistons hosting the Toronto Raptors.
The pregame narrative: Detroit has fared well against Toronto lately, and I expect that trend to continue in a win for the home team. Scottie Barnes and Jalen Duren props round out this +410 ticket.
Check out my Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 11.
Raptors vs. Pistons predictions
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Parlay: Pistons -1.5 + Barnes over 18.5 points + Duren over 10.5 points (+410)
Pistons -1.5 (-195): The Raptors might not be winning many games, but they know how to put on a good tank. And with this year’s draft class, who can blame them?
Toronto used to have one of the top ATS records in the league. The team’s current ATS record (21-16-1) is still nothing to sneeze at, but it’s tapered off since the start of the season.
- First 16 games: 11-5-0 ATS
- Past 14 games: 4-10-0 ATS
The Pistons have been one of this year’s pleasant surprises thus far. They currently sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with a .500 record (19-19). Last season, no team was worse, as Detroit finished dead last in the NBA with a .171 winning percentage.
Detroit is 8-2 in its last 10 games with impressive victories over the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, covering the spread in all three.
The Raptors have gone four straight meetings versus the Pistons without victory, and with the current states of each team, I don’t see them snapping the streak tonight.
SGP legs
Duren over 10.5 points (-125): Duren’s production has dipped a touch from last season, but I still like him to have a good night in a plus matchup.
Toronto has struggled against opposing bigs all season, and its recent games have shown no improvement:
- Jarrett Allen (Jan. 9): 18 points, 8-of-9 shooting
- Karl-Anthony Towns (Jan. 8): 27 points, 9-of-14 shooting
- Brook Lopez (Jan. 6): 16 points, 6-of-10 shooting
Duren has seen his minutes increase over the past three weeks, averaging north of 27 minutes per game, largely due to his quality of play on the court.
He’s also cleared this mark in his previous four games against Toronto, averaging 16.75 PPG over that stretch.
The Raptors allow the sixth-most points per game to opposing centres (23.5), per Betting Pros.
Barnes over 18.5 points (-134): Since returning from injury, Barnes has proven why he’s the face of the franchise.
The fourth-year forward has averaged 22.3 PPG over his last nine games, shooting 53.0% from the floor over that stretch.
In a rebuilding year for the Raps, it’s encouraging to see Barnes is still playing with confidence and aggression — even when the team results don’t follow.
Detroit allows the seventh-most points per game to opposing power forwards (23.4).
In Barnes’ previous two games versus the Pistons, he finished with 22 and 31 points, respectively, averaging 36.5 minutes per game.
Picks made at 10:07 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.
