In frigid, blustery conditions on Sunday night, the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams duke it out for a spot in the NFC championship game.
The pregame narrative: Chicago, searching for its second Super Bowl bid in 20 years, is a home underdog in the divisional round. Los Angeles, led by Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, heads to the Windy City with the top-ranked scoring offence in the NFL.
Check out my Rams vs. Bears picks, featuring predictions on Caleb Williams and Kyren Williams in a +360 SGP.
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Rams vs. Bears picks
SGP: K. Williams 60+ rush yards | C. Williams 200+ pass yards | Bears +7.5 (+360)
K. Williams 60+ rushing yards (-121): Even with NFL MVP candidate Matthew Stafford under centre, I think this is a good time for the Rams to pound the rock.
The weather in Chicago on Sunday is expected to include wind gusts in the range of 40-50 km/hour, which The Weather Network identifies as “strong enough to break umbrellas and move large tree branches.”
Blake Corum is siphoning quite a few touches from Williams these days, but the floor is significantly higher for Williams.
Consider this: Williams is averaging 15.1 carries, accruing at least 12 carries in every game this season; Corum, meanwhile, has never had more than 14 carries in any game (and he only hit that mark once).
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- Williams has 60+ rushing yards in 14 of 18 games this year.
- In four career playoff games, he has 61 carries for 300 yards (75.0 yards/game).
The Bears allow the sixth-highest rushing success rate in the NFL (44.0%), according to RBSDM.com. Williams has a stable workload and should put that to good use at Soldier Field.
Rams vs. Bears prop prediction
C. Williams 200+ passing yards (-190): It hasn’t always looked pretty, and it hasn’t always worked, but Williams has been a certified gunslinger this season.
- Williams finished third in the NFL during the regular season in air yards (on complete and incomplete passes), finishing at 4,809.
- According to Player Profiler, Williams has amassed 220+ air yards in every game this year. For context, Josh Allen averaged 197.1 air yards during the regular season.
Air yards don’t necessarily convert to realized yardage, but they do demonstrate how a quarterback creates opportunities. And a few chunk plays would go a long way to helping Williams hit this milestone.
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The aforementioned wind gusts won’t make it easy for Williams to air it out, but maybe he won’t need to. Williams is consistently throwing at a high volume, averaging 35.9 pass attempts over his past 12 games (only Bo Nix averaged more over the full season).
So far this year, Williams has 200+ passing yards in 14 of 18 games.
SGP prediction: NFL ATS pick
Bears +7.5 (-215): It’s impossible to decipher what the exact clutch vs. luck breakdown is for this Chicago team. But the fact is, they just don’t go away.
- After mounting an 18-point comeback in the second half against the Packers last weekend, the Bears now have seven wins this year in games where they trailed in the final two minutes. That’s more than any other team since at least 1970 (when the NFL/AFL merger happened).
- Chicago is 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine games. Over the full season, the Bears have covered a +7.5 spread in 16 of 18 games.
I don’t think the Bears are the better team in this matchup, but I feel much better about taking this bet at -215 than I would backing the Rams on the moneyline (-195).
After all, Los Angeles needed a last-minute comeback of its own to beat the lowly Carolina Panthers last week.
The Rams are now 2-3 SU and ATS in their past five road games — only covering a -7.5 spread once in that span.
Rams vs. Bears picks made at 10:05 a.m. on Jan. 16, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.