I’ve got two prop bets for this weekend’s Premier League action.
The pregame narrative: A well-rested Cody Gakpo should make noise for Liverpool against relegation-bound Southampton on Saturday. After that, look for Arsenal’s Leandro Trossard to register a shot on target against Manchester United
Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 28.
Premier League predictions
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Best Bet: Gakpo to score or give an assist (-113)
Liverpool has one hand on the Premier League trophy and can potentially go 16 points clear of Arsenal with a win this weekend.
Picking up three points, at home, against last-place Southampton seems like a certainty.
- Southampton has allowed the most goals (65) and has the most xG conceded (65.1), according to FotMob.
- The Saints also allow the most shots (17.89) and shots on target (6.74) on a 90-minute basis.
- Liverpool is -835 to win and Mohamed Salah, who paces the league with 25 goals, is -152 to score.
I’m not in love with Salah’s odds so will instead turn to Gakpo on a goals and assists market.
The Dutch national missed Liverpool’s Champions League Round of 16 game against PSG on Wednesday but Arne Slot is hopeful he’ll return to action on Saturday.
Gakpo is averaging 0.70 goals and assists per 90 in the EPL, which is the third-best mark among all Liverpool players who have started one or more games.
Key stat: Gakpo has four goals and an assist in his last five starts across all competitions.
Quick pick
Trossard over 0.5 SOT (-136): Arsenal’s hopes to win the Premiership are dead in the water without Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz, who are out with hamstring injuries.
The duo have combined for 27 goals and assists (15 for Saka, 12 for Havertz) in the EPL, and Trossard is next with nine goal contributions.
The Belgian forward should have plenty of opportunities to fire a shot on goal against Manchester United, which is conceding the eighth-most xG per game (42.8).
Trossard has logged a shot on target in four of his last five games across all competitions.
Picks made at 12:49 p.m. on 03/06/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.