The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in action for a third time in four days, this time hosting the Nashville Predators on Tuesday at Scotiabank Arena.
The pregame narrative: Toronto dominated play against the Detroit Red Wings yesterday, but came away with zero points in a brutal last-minute loss. The Leafs are favoured to get back in the win column tonight, with Cayden Primeau likely to make his debut in goal.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks for Oct. 14, featuring predictions on Auston Matthews and Jonathan Marchessault.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Predators
Best bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-130)
Leafs fans are accustomed to Matthews dominating out of the gate, so it’s a little disheartening to see him with just one goal (on an empty net) so far.
But it’s not for a lack of effort. Check out what the captain did during Toronto’s recent home-and-home with the Detroit Red Wings:
- Saturday: Six shots (12 attempts), 0.62 xG
- Monday: Eight shots (14 attempts), 0.9 xG
The goals will come soon enough, and I think backing Matthews to score tonight at -107 is a fine play.
But I just can’t look past this meagre shot total.
Matthews blew by this mark in consecutive games, and faces a Nashville team which has allowed the sixth-most shots on a 60-minute basis so far (30.67), per Natural Stat Trick.
Key stat: Matthews is 7-1 against this line in his last eight games vs. the Predators.
Best NHL prop predictions
Marschaessault over 2.5 shots (+110): I’m not sure what the Maple Leafs are going to get out of Primeau, who was brutal in the NHL last season but elite with the Laval Rocket after being sent to the AHL in December.
The netminder posted a 1.96 GAA and .927 SV% with the Montreal Canadiens’ affiliate in 26 games.
One thing I do know is that the Maple Leafs give up a ton of chances.
Toronto gave up the fourth-most chances (62.88) and eighth-most shots (29.1) on a 60-minute basis last season, and returned each of its starting defencemen.
Marschaessault is off to a hot start with the Preds, netting two goals and an assist through three games.
He cleared this total in back-to-back contests and ranks second on the squad in shot attempts (16) so far.
Maple Leafs picks made at 11:26 a.m. ET 10/14/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.