The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet in prime time on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame night: It may be early, but this game will go a long way in deciding the AFC East. A Buffalo win puts the team three games clear of any divisional foe; a loss brings New England within one game of the Bills. The stakes are high in Western New York.
Check out my +500 Patriots vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below, featuring Josh Allen and Hunter Henry.
Patriots vs. Bills SGP predictions
SGP: Bills -8 | Allen over 228.5 passing yards | Henry over 41.5 receiving yards (+500)
Bills -8 (-106): Buffalo hasn’t been covering spreads, but it has been winning by double digits.
Despite being a middling 2-2 against the spread, the Bills have won three of their four games by 10-plus points.
That’ll do the trick against a Patriots team I’m not fully sold on just yet.
New England is an even 2-2, but its wins have come against the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers. Conversely, its losses were to the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers.
I need to see a little more before I’m willing to buy in on the Patriots.
Buffalo received some positive injury news, too, with Matt Milano and Ed Oliver both listed as questionable after missing multiple weeks. If even one of the two can rejoin the lineup, that’ll be a significant boost for the Bills.
Sunday Night Football SGP picks
Allen over 228.5 passing yards (-118): Allen has only topped this total in one of four games, but he’s a good pick to do it in this spot.
The Patriots have a pass-funnel defence. They’re tied for allowing the second-fewest yards per rush (3.3), but surrendering the fourth-most yards per pass (7.7).
New England is allowing the seventh-most passing yards per game (241.5), and it’s not like it’s faced a gauntlet of QBs:
- Geno Smith
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Aaron Rodgers
- Bryce Young
Allen shouldn’t have much resistance throwing the ball on Sunday.
Henry under 41.5 receiving yards (-118): Lastly, I’m fading Henry.
The tight end has been a go-to target early in Drake Maye’s career, but there appears to be a shift on the way.
Henry has gone below this total in two of his last three games, and Stefon Diggs is taking on a larger role.
The ex-Bills receiver played a season-high 63.3% of the offensive snaps in Week 4 and turned in a six-catch, 101-yard performance.
The matchup is a stay-away spot for Henry, as the Bills are allowing the fewest yards per game to tight ends this season (16.8).
Patriots vs. Bills predictions made at 2:35 p.m. on 10/04/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.