The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers begin their second-round series on Monday night at Scotiabank Arena.
The pregame narrative: Starting on the right foot will be key for the Maple Leafs, who aim to advance to the conference finals for the first time in the “Core Four” era. The reigning champion Panthers have been to back-to-back Stanley Cup finals and are favoured to win the series opener.
Matthew Knies and Anton Lundell are my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Game 1 on May 5.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs picks
Best bet: Knies to register a point (-129)
Toronto’s Core Four has become a Fab Five with how Knies is playing.
The third-year winger broke out with a career-high 29 goals and 58 points this season. Knies flashed his scoring touch in the opening round with three goals against the Ottawa Senators, including this beauty in Game 4:
His physicality and size are exactly what Toronto needs going up against a team like Florida, and I expect Craig Berube to lean on the youngster.
Of course, Knies will get plenty of minutes regardless while playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line.
That unit generated a team-high 58 chances and 2.89 xG in the opening round, per Natural Stat Trick.
Knies is also on the team’s first power-play unit, which clicked at a 35.3% rate against Ottawa (second-best in playoffs entering play on May 4).
Based on his outsized opportunity, this line seems like a steal.
Key stat: Knies has 42 points in 48 games since Jan. 1.
Game 1 prop prediction
Lundell over 1.5 shots (-136): Lundell isn’t the first, second, or even 10th name you think of when looking at Florida’s roster. But he’s important, centring the third line alongside Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen.
Lundell averaged 16:38 of ice time in the opening round and had at least one shot in every outing, clearing this total in Games 3-5.
Toronto has done a good job of limiting high-danger chances but is still giving up a lot of shot attempts (60.46 per 60, sixth-most in NHL playoffs).
Lundell had six shots in his last game against the Leafs.
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET 05/04/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.