The Colorado Avalanche host the Florida Panthers in a primetime Monday night matchup.
The pregame narrative: Two teams with championship aspirations square off, and I’m backing the defending champs to win as road underdogs, along with the over.
Check out my Panthers vs. Avalanche picks for Jan. 6.
Panthers vs. Avalanche picks
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Best bet: Over 6.5 goals (+100)
I’m anticipating a good old fashioned barn-burner tonight in Denver.
Both squads have raised the Stanley Cup in the past three years. Unsurprisingly, they both have high-powered offences and superstars all over the ice.
One aspect that hasn’t been up to par has been the goaltending.
Sergei Bobrovsky is the highest-paid goalie in the NHL ($10 million AAV), but he owns the 32nd-ranked save percentage among qualified starters (.899).
Florida has gone to backup Spencer Knight more consistently, but he’s yet to fare any better. The fourth-year netminder has posted a 2.80 GAA this season and a measly .891 SV%.
Colorado’s goaltending has been a mess all season, but I’ll get more into that later.
Defence gets thrown out the window when these teams face off. Since January 2023, these teams have combined for at least eight goals in four of five matchups.
Key stat: The average game total in the past five meetings between Florida and Colorado is 8.8 goals. That includes a 7-4 win for Colorado on Nov. 23.
Quick pick
Panthers moneyline (+105): It’s always enticing to back the defending champions at plus money, and I see no reason to stay away tonight.
Florida, surprisingly, has performed better on the road this season versus at home. The same is true for Colorado.
- Panthers
Home: 12-8-1, +4 goal differential
Road: 12-6-1, +7 goal differential
- Avalanche
Home: 11-8-1, -3 goal differential
Road: 13-7-0, +10 goal differential
The Panthers also have the special teams advantage. Both teams are solid on the power play, but Colorado’s penalty kill ranks tied for 23rd (76.9%), while Florida’s ranks 14th (80.8%).
Now let’s get back to the Avalanche’s goaltending situation:
- 24th in GAA (3.23)
- 26th in SV% (.892)
- 5+ goals allowed in 12/40 games
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Avalanche also have the lowest high-danger SV% in the NHL (76.04%).
Florida has won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, and I like that trend to continue tonight.
Picks made at 12:31 p.m. ET on 01/06/2025.
