Stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts are featured in my top prop picks for tonight’s winner-take-all game between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: With a berth in the NLCS on the line, I also have plays on Yu Darvish and Luis Arraez.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks for Game 5 of their NLDS matchup on October 11.
Padres vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best bet: Darvish under 4.5 Ks (-150)
Despite how well Darvish pitched in Game 2 — throwing seven innings of one-run ball — the right-hander wasn’t able to top this number.
And there’s next to no chance he’s sniffing the seventh inning again tonight. So Darvish should have significantly fewer opportunities to get to five strikeouts.
Even if Darvish is dealing, the Dodgers have several powerful left-handed bats that can set the Padres up for a platoon advantage by bringing in a southpaw.
The likely shorter outing is the biggest reason I’m fading him. But the 38-year-old isn’t the same swing-and-miss arm he used to be.
Darvish can still punch batters out but he posted the lowest K rate of his career. It marked the fourth consecutive season his K% declined. His hard-hit rate was the highest since Baseball Savant started tracking in 2016.
Los Angeles’ pitching staff has faced serious questions but its offence remains potent.
The Dodgers have scored five-plus runs in three of the four NLDS games and hit seven homers with a league-average strikeout rate.
That follows a regular season that saw them place No. 1 in the majors in wRC+ and ISO.
Key stat: Darvish is 1-3 versus a 4.5 K line against the Dodgers this season.
Quick picks
Tatis over 1.5 total bases (+102): At this point, I’ll ride this until it doesn’t hit.
Tatis has been an absolute machine, clearing 1.5 total bases in all six postseason games.
This is an excellent number following two consecutive games that I recommended it at -117.
The dynamic outfielder is hitting .500 with a 1.759 OPS in the postseason, going yard four times and racking up seven extra-base hits.
Arraez over 0.5 runs (+123): The Padres’ leadoff man has only gotten on base once in the past two games but cashed this in six straight before that.
In 27 postseason at-bats, he has only struck once, so nearly all of his plate appearances are ending with the ball put in play. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll get on base (.222 OBP in the NLDS) but it doesn’t hurt either.
Arraez hits in front of Tatis, while Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill occupy the No. 4 and 5 spots in this dangerous lineup.
If Arraez can get on, he’ll have a great chance to cross the plate.
Betts over 0.5 runs (+100): Los Angeles’ No. 2 hitter has four runs in as many games, scoring in all but one of these NLDS matchups.
He’s provided a pair of those runs with homers, recording multi-hit games in consecutive contests.
Freddie Freeman is hurting but is expected to play. That means Betts will have the former MVP plus fellow run producers Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy hitting behind him.
Both teams have relentless lineups and I’m expecting plenty of scoring again tonight.
Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET 10/11/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.