The San Diego Padres look to stay on a roll Wednesday night with a series victory up for grabs against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Arizona leads the season series, 5-4, entering tonight’s rubber match for a three-game set at Chase Field. But the Padres have been a far better bunch lately, and they’re the ones who loaded up at the trade deadline to make a serious postseason push.
Check out my Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions, featuring Jackson Merrill and Geraldo Perdomo.
Cardinals vs. Padres predictions
Parlay: Padres ML | Merrill over 0.5 RBI | Perdomo over 0.5 hits (+335)
Padres moneyline (-141): San Diego is 8-2 in its past 10 games and just simply looks like the much better club right now.
Since the all-star break, the Padres rank sixth in wRC+ (117) and first in bullpen ERA (2.06).
In the same span, the D-backs are 22nd in wRC+ (93) and 21st in bullpen ERA (4.75).
Nestor Cortes will start for the Padres tonight in just his third outing of the season. He had some very encouraging minor-league rehab results that suggest he’s ready to face MLB-calibre hitters:
- 4 MiLB starts
- 9.0 K/9
- 1.00 ERA
- .154 opponent BA
On the Diamondbacks’ side, Anthony DeSclafani gets the ball. He’s been really up and down in limited work this year, but his 5.92 FIP in nine outings doesn’t paint a rosy picture overall.
Arizona is 4-10 in its past 14 games.
MLB SGP legs
Merrill over 0.5 RBI (+112): Merrill’s in a nice little groove right now, and he’s done an exceptional job of cashing in runners on base.
Check out the second-year outfielder’s numbers over his past 15 games:
- 17 RBI
- 1+ hits in 14 of 15
- .777 OPS
- 1+ RBI in 7 straight games
Merrill has never faced DeSclafani, but the Padres have a combined 91 plate appearances vs. the right-hander. And the lineup as a whole has fared really well, posting a .287 BA and a .540 SLG against him.
From San Diego’s cleanup spot, Merrill should continue to see RBI opportunities at a solid clip.
Perdomo over 0.5 hits (-215): Perdomo is a guy worth targeting when there’s a southpaw on the mound.
I think Cortes can help lead the Padres to victory, but I don’t expect him to completely shut down Perdomo, who’s 22-for-62 (.355) in his past 17 games.
Against LHPs this season, Perdomo is batting .328 with an .816 OPS.
Perdomo ranks in the 94th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate. If he’s swinging, he’s very likely putting the ball in play and giving himself a chance at a hit.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions made at 2:05 p.m. ET on 08/06/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.