The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in a battle of playoff contenders.
The pregame narrative: Oklahoma City is having one of the best regular seasons in recent memory, but Indiana enters this game in solid form. I’m backing the Pacers to cover a lofty spread as road underdogs. Additionally, I’m backing the over on the game total and Andrew Nembhard‘s point total.
Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for March 29.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Pacers +13.5 | Over 237.5 points | Nembhard over 10.5 points (+320)
Pacers +13.5 (-195): There’s a reason why the Thunder are such heavy favourites in this contest.
The team has won five of its last six games by 16-plus points, winning 15 of their last 16 outright. Oklahoma City is firing on all cylinders ahead of the playoffs.
But this Indiana offence has come to life. The Pacers scored 162 points in their most recent game, a victory over the Washington Wizards.
They’ve won eight of their last 10 games and have covered this spread in each of those contests.
Their road record is concerning (18-19), but they’ve been good in the spot of a road underdog. Indiana is a solid 11-8 in that scenario this season.
NBA SGP legs
Over 237.5 points (-105): These two offences are liable for a big performance on any night.
Here is how they rank in a number of key offensive categories:
- OKC ranks fourth in offensive rating (118.9)
- IND ranks eighth in offensive rating (115.6)
- OKC places fourth in points per game (119.9)
- IND is seventh in points per game (117.2)
- OKC has the eighth-fastest pace (100.64)
- IND has the seventh-fastest pace (100.66)
The over is typically a great bet to add to an SGP when the Pacers are road dogs. They boast an 11-6-2 overs record in this spot this season.
Indiana has gone over this total in five of its last eight games. I expect both offences to shine in this contest and push this over the number.
Nembhard over 10.5 points (-110): The Thunder shut down pretty much every position on the court.
Here’s where they rank in points allowed for each position:
- 1st vs. PGs (22.41)
- 10th vs. SGs (21.87)
- 3rd vs. SFs (19.81)
- 6th vs. PFs (21.45)
- T-8th vs. Cs (20.85)
Typically, backing players to go over their points prop against OKC is an exercise in futility.
But on a night where I expect Indiana to cover and the over to cash, looking to Nembhard isn’t such a bad idea.
For starters, this total is right in his wheelhouse. Nembhard is averaging 10.2 points per game which puts this total well in reach.
Secondly, Nembhard did well in his lone outing against the Thunder in 2024-25. He totalled a season-high 23 points on Dec. 26.
Lastly, Nembhard is just one game removed from a stellar 16-point outing against the Los Angeles Lakers. I expect him to build on his solid form tonight.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 11:15 a.m. ET 03/26/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.