Well, the Indiana Pacers did it again. Thanks to yet another frenzied comeback in a postseason full of them, the underdogs have a 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals.
The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder were severely out-rebounded in Game 1, and they also failed to slow down the Pacers from 3-point range. Still, the Thunder are 11-point favourites on Sunday night to even the series.
I’m targeting Isaiah Hartenstein, Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks on June 8.
Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks
Best bet: Hartenstein over 6.5 rebounds (-124)
My colleague Spencer backed Hartenstein to grab eight-plus rebounds in the series opener, and that prop cashed at +112, despite Hartenstein playing just 17 minutes and coming off the bench for the first time in the postseason.
There’s a pretty notable split in terms of Hartenstein’s usage, and it doesn’t paint a rosy picture:
- First 9 playoff games: 26.9 minutes, 9.2 rebounds
- Past 8 playoff games: 19.8 minutes, 6.5 rebounds
Why, then, am I bullish on Hartenstein’s rebound production in Game 2?
Because OKC went -17 in the rebounding count in Game 1. That can’t happen again, and Hartenstein is the top candidate to do something about it.
Frontcourt size was supposed to be a strength for OKC this series. They employ two 7-footers (Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren) to Indiana’s zero. But it seems the speed of the Pacers coaxed the Thunder to stray from that strategy.
Hartenstein led the Thunder with nine rebounds despite playing just 17 minutes. Three players on the Pacers had nine or more boards.
During the regular season, Hartenstein cashed this bet in 48 of 57 games (84.2%). I know he’s seen reduced minutes since then, but he’s still capable of hitting the over in a reduced role.
OKC cannot afford to get waxed on the glass again in Game 2. I expect Hartenstein to be a central figure in the Thunder’s adjustments.
Key stat: Hartenstein is 11-6 vs. this line in the postseason, and he has five-plus rebounds in every game.
Game 2 prop prediction
Siakam over 25.5 points/rebounds (-121): This pick has some Hartenstein insurance baked into it. If Hartenstein takes a backseat again, Siakam should have more rebounding opportunities.
Then again, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP is capable of clearing this line on points alone. So I’m not fixated on his rebounding upside.
Coming off a 19-point, 10-rebound performance, Siakam is now 6-3 vs. this line in his past nine games. He has three games of 30-plus points in that span.
For the postseason as a whole, Siakam is averaging 26.9 PR, consistently putting himself in a strong spot to hit this over.
Toppin over 1.5 threes (+150): As I mentioned in my NBA Finals series preview, one key for Indiana in this matchup was to shoot more 3s.
They nailed it in Game 1, attempting 39 shots from beyond the arc. That accounted for 47.6% of their total field-goal attempts, which was Indiana’s highest rate of the postseason.
Toppin was crucial to the perimeter success, posting team-highs in makes (five) and attempts (eight).
He hadn’t attempted more than four 3s in any of the first 16 playoff games during this run, so I can’t expect that type of volume again.
But I do think four attempts should be his floor if Indiana is committed to staying active from deep.
With that in mind, a +150 price on Toppin canning a couple of 3s has some value in my eyes.
Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:07 a.m. ET 06/07/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.