The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder begin their best-of-seven NBA Finals series on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: The Thunder rolled through the West, leaning on MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a special defence. Indiana, on the other hand, is built on depth scoring but will need to overcome its status as a heavy underdog in the Finals.
I’m targeting Myles Turner and Isaiah Hartenstein in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks on June 5.
Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks
Best bet: Turner under 13.5 points (-106)
Indiana’s starting centre has consistently fallen short of this mark despite shooting a very high 52.5% from the field (40.3% from 3) in the postseason.
That was evident in his final three games vs. the New York Knicks:
- Game 4: 13 points (made 5-of-8 FGs)
- Game 5: 5 points (made 2-of-3 FGs)
- Game 6: 11 points (made 4-of-6 FGs)
He’s not a priority in the Pacers’ offence and has received less playing time as the playoffs progress. He was on the court for a combined 45 minutes between Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference final.
On top of that, the Thunder are a level above the rest on defence. They have the best defensive rating in the playoffs (104.7).
For context, the Boston Celtics rank second in defensive rating (108.1). OKC’s defence is head and shoulders above the competition.
That should make it difficult for anyone on the Pacers to have an efficient night, and I’ll choose to fade Turner based on his lack of volume.
Key stat: Turner went 0-2 against this line vs. the Thunder in the regular season while shooting a combined 6-for-19 from the field (31.6%).
Game 1 prop prediction
Hartenstein 8+ rebounds (+105): The Western Conference is full of big rebounding teams that make it hard for centres to be effective.
Hartenstein witnessed that in the WCF against the Minnesota Timberwolves when he had to deal with 7-foot defensive stopper Rudy Gobert.
He went 1-4 against this line in that series, but I believe now is the time to jump back in at a discounted price.
- Hartenstein was more effective in the first two series, going 7-4 against this line.
- Out of the playoff teams, the Pacers allowed the second-most rebounds to centres during the regular season (15.26), per Fantasy Pros.
Knicks’ starting centre, Karl-Anthony Towns, feasted down low in the ECF, recording 12.2 rebounds per game.
I expect a similarly dominant effort from Hartenstein on a smaller scale. He averages 16.0 rebound chances in the postseason.
Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 1:33 p.m. ET 06/05/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.