The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder wrap up the NBA season on Sunday with Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
The pregame narrative: Basketball fans haven’t been treated to a winner-take-all Finals game since 2016, when the Cleveland Cavaliers downed the Golden State Warriors. Indiana has been a sizeable underdog all series and is in that position again at Paycom Center, where OKC is 10-2 this postseason.
Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder best bets for Game 7, featuring Tyrese Haliburton.
Pacers vs. Thunder best bets
Best bet: Thunder -8 (-112)
I expected the Thunder to finish the job in Indiana, and they got routed.
But back at home, on a few days’ rest, I think OKC can pick up a decisive win. After all, that’s exactly what happened in the Western Conference semifinal against a battle-tested Denver Nuggets group.
- Game 6 in Denver: 119-107 loss
- Game 7 in OKC: 125-93 win
The Thunder have been lighting teams up at Paycom Center all season and into the playoffs, going an NBA-best 36-15-2 ATS. Here are a few more ways to illustrate their dominance at home:
- OKC has a +20.7 net rating at home in the playoffs. That’s the seventh-best of all time (minimum eight games).
- Nine of the Thunder’s 10 home playoff wins have been by 10+ points, including each of their last two home wins against the Pacers. They have a +25.0 average margin of victory at Paycom Center.
Sure, Indiana won Game 1 on the road in heroic fashion. But that required a rare fourth-quarter meltdown by the Thunder and an all-time shot by Haliburton.
I’ll roll with the team which has been historically good at home this year.
Key stat: OKC’s +12.8 net rating this year was the second-best ever, behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
NBA Finals Game 7 picks
Haliburton 8+ assists (+115): Haliburton battled through a calf strain in Game 6, putting up 14 points and five assists in just 23 minutes of play.
It was the best-case scenario for the Pacers, as the star point guard got to rest through the closing stretch as Indiana cruised to a victory.
With that said, I love these odds for a top-five passer in the league.
Haliburton averaged 9.3 assists per game this season (third-most in the NBA). In the playoffs, he’s 12-10 against this line.
He’s only cashed this bet once in the Finals so far, mind you. But he was on pace to reach the milestone in Game 6 and had at least six assists in all five games before that.
Haliburton has an exceptionally high floor as a passer and should be well-rested heading into this winner-take-all game.
Pacers vs. Thunder best bets made at 10:58 p.m. ET 06/20/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.