The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers kick off the 2025 NBA Finals on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: OKC has demolished its competition since Game 1 of the season and is a massive favourite to win the opener and the series. Indiana has already toppled a giant in the Cleveland Cavaliers, but doesn’t have anyone to match up with the MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder best bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, featuring SGA.
Pacers vs. Thunder best bets
Best bet: Thunder -9 (-112)
This matchup is David vs. Goliath personified.
OKC is a -715 favourite to win this series, which carries an 87.73% implied probability. And if that seems ridiculous to you, it’s not.
- The Thunder posted a +12.8 net rating during the regular season. That is the second-best mark of all time behind the Michael Jordan-led 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
- They have a +24.7 net rating at home in the playoffs, nearly 10 points better than the Los Angeles Clippers, which ranks second.
- OKC is 8-1 at home this postseason, winning seven of those games by 15+ points
Indiana has been a stellar road team this postseason, going 6-2 with a +2.4 net rating. But several of those wins required incredible comebacks and last-second heroics, which I can’t see happening against a team that excels at frontrunning.
The Thunder smashed the Pacers 132-111 in their lone meeting at Paycom Center this year.
Key stat: OKC is a league-best 34-14-2 ATS at home.
NBA Finals Game 1 picks
Gilgeous-Alexander over 12.5 rebounds and assists (-138): No one can fill the basket like Gilgeous-Alexander, and that’s a fact. But I want to tap into his other playmaking abilities on Thursday.
The MVP stuffed the stat sheet in the Western Conference finals, averaging 5.2 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game. He went 3-2 against this line, landing on 11 R/A in one of the outliers.
Indiana has really struggled to contain opponents on the glass this postseason, ranking 13th out of 16 teams in rebounding rate (47.5%).
The Pacers are relatively undersized, with only one player in their starting rotation standing above 6-foot-8 (Myles Turner).
Both teams play at a lightning-quick pace, too, ranking in the top three this postseason.
More possessions mean more rebounding and assist opportunities for SGA, who is logging a team-high 36.5 minutes a night.
Gilgeous-Alexander cleared this line in both of his matchups against the Pacers this season, logging seven rebounds and eight assists in each game.
Pacers vs. Thunder best bets made at 10:29 a.m. ET 06/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.