The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will break a deadlock in the NBA Finals on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Nobody expected this series to be tied through four games, and the odds indicate OKC should pull away with this in short order. The Thunder are heavily favoured to win at home tonight behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been automatic at Paycom Center.
Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 5 on June 16, featuring SGA.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Pacers +16.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Caruso 2+ threes (+350)
Pacers +16.5 (-315): At this point, it wouldn’t shock me if the Pacers managed to win this game and the series. Rick Carlisle’s squad has been pulling off upsets all postseason and has been an exceptionally tough road team since Day 1.
- The Pacers have an 8-2 road record in the playoffs.
- Their +0.4 road net rating ranks third among all playoff teams.
- Since the start of the regular season, Indiana is 19-12 ATS as a road underdog. That’s the fourth-best mark in basketball.
The Pacers are 18-2 against this line in the playoffs and have covered this mark in five of six games against the Thunder this year (all four this series).
Don’t expect Indiana to roll over tonight.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-265): Gilgeous-Alexander is on a generational scoring run, and that’s reflected in these heavily juiced odds.
The Canadian averaged a league-best 32.7 PPG this year en route to winning the MVP. He has kept his foot on the gas in the playoffs, especially at home.
- 31.8 PPG at home on 49.4% shooting
- 30+ points in nine straight home games
SGA is averaging a whopping 35.0 PPG in his last five home playoff games, dropping 38 and 34 in the first two games of this series.
He’s coming off a 35-point effort on the road in Game 4 and is rightfully leading the Thunder in minutes and field-goal attempts per game.
Caruso 2+ threes (-105): Caruso has become an X-factor for the Thunder this series, with Mark Daigneault leaning on the veteran heavily as the series goes on.
He is averaging 29.3 minutes a night — after logging 22.6 against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the WCF — and has made hay with those opportunities:
- 14.8 points/game
- 2.5 steals/game
- 50.0 3PT%
Caruso is shooting 43.2% from deep this postseason and is 9-7 against this line since the start of the second round.
Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 11:56 a.m. ET 06/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.