The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers close out Sunday’s NBA playoff quadrupleheader with a pivotal Game 4.
The pregame narrative: Milwaukee lost the first two games of this series and is looking to even things up after picking up a decisive win at home on Friday. I’ll ride with Indiana to keep this one close, though, with prop bets on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis.
Check out my Pacers vs. Bucks playoff SGP predictions for Game 4 on Sunday, April 27.
Pacers vs. Bucks predictions
Parlay: Pacers +8.5 | Giannis 30+ points | Portis 8+ rebounds (+285)
Pacers +8.5 (-215): Indiana was on the wrong end of a blowout in Game 3, but there are plenty of reasons to believe it can rebound on Sunday.
- The Pacers won the series opener by 19 points and followed that up with an 8-point win in Game 2.
- Dating back to the start of last season, Indiana has covered a +10.5 spread in 13 of 18 games against Milwaukee (playoffs included).
- Rick Carlisle’s squad went 12-10 ATS as a road underdog this season, with a -2.3 average margin of victory.
Indiana had a horrific shooting night in Game 3, going 43.3% from the floor and 31.7% from deep. I’ll consider that a one-off, though, because Milwaukee isn’t a defensive juggernaut.
The Bucks were a pedestrian 16th in defensive rating following the all-star break and are 12th out of 16 playoff teams as of April 27th.
NBA SGP legs
Giannis 30+ points (-225): We’re only three games in, but Giannis is heading toward one of the great playoff series performances of all time.
- Game 1: 36 points (14-of-23 shooting), 12 rebounds
- Game 2: 34 points (14-of-20 shooting), 18 rebounds
- Game 3: 37 points (14-of-19 shooting), 12 rebounds
The Greek Freak has been scoring at will against the Pacers, which is nothing new. He’s averaging 36.1 PPG in his last 15 games against them, reaching this milestone 12 times.
Indiana also allowed the sixth-most PPG to opposing power forwards this year, according to Fantasy Pros.
The one concern I would have with Giannis is his conditioning. He’s being asked to do it all and has delivered, but how long can that last?
That said, he only played 32 minutes in Game 3 and should be relatively well-rested for another monster showing on Sunday.
Portis 8+ rebounds (-210): Milwaukee is going to need secondary players beyond Giannis and Damian Lillard to produce, and Portis can be that guy.
The veteran forward has cleared this line in all six games since returning to the Bucks’ active lineup on April 8 and also in seven of 10 games before getting injured.
Portis had double-digit boards in five of six playoff games against Indiana last year, with the exception being a game where he was ejected after seven minutes.
So if you exclude that, he’s hit this milestone in eight straight playoff games against the Pacers.
Pacers vs. Bucks predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET 04/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.