The Milwaukee Bucks are looking to get back in their first-round series tonight when they host the Indiana Pacers for Game 3.
The pregame narrative: Milwaukee dropped Games 1 and 2 on the road but is favoured tonight. I’d prefer to bank some points with Indiana while also backing Pascal Siakam and Damian Lillard in a +280 SGP.
Check out my Pacers vs. Bucks playoff SGP predictions for Game 3 on Friday, April 25.
Pacers vs. Bucks predictions
Parlay: Pacers +8.5 | Lillard 6+ assists | Siakam 20+ points (+250)
Pacers +8.5 (-180): Indiana earned a pair of comfortable victories to start the series, covering the spread both times. So sign me up for this amount of cushion in Game 3.
- In the series opener, the Pacers won by 19 points as 6-point favourites. They followed that up with an 8-point win as 4.5-point favourites.
- Indiana has covered a +8.5 spread in five straight games against Milwaukee, dating back to Dec. 31.
Lillard’s insertion into the series is a boost for the Bucks, but I’m not sold on him being a game-breaking scorer after missing more than a month of action.
And behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks just don’t have the depth to match the Pacers.
Indiana has seven players who averaged 10.0 PPG or more this season, and the team ranked ninth this year in offensive rating (one spot ahead of Milwaukee).
The Pacers have covered a +8.5 spread in 18 of their past 21 road games.
NBA SGP legs
Lillard 6+ assists (-200): I took Lillard over 6.5 assists (-108) as one of my top prop bets for Friday night, so naturally I’m keen to back him on a milestone like this.
Lillard didn’t get into an offensive rhythm in Game 2 — his first NBA action since March 18 — finishing with 14 points on 30.8% shooting. But he did chip in with seven assists.
In five games against the Pacers this season, Lillard has averaged 8.8 assists and cashed this bet four times.
According to Betting Pros, Indiana allowed the 11th-most assists per game to opposing point guards (8.99), and Lillard has clearly taken advantage.
Siakam 20+ points (-124): At this price, Siakam’s milestone points prop is playable on its own. But it also takes this SGP from +132 to +280, and that has my attention.
- This season, Siakam is 6-0 against this prop when facing the Bucks. He’s averaged 24.2 PPG vs. Milwaukee.
- So far this series, Siakam has shot 18-for-31 (58.1%) from the floor and is a perfect 8-for-8 from the free-throw line.
Will things be tougher on Siakam now that he’s playing on the road? Maybe, but last year’s playoff showdown against the Bucks wouldn’t suggest that.
Siakam 2-1 against this prop in Milwaukee last postseason, scoring 35-plus points in two of those games.
Also, Siakam now has 20-plus points in eight of his past nine playoff games (he had 19 points in the outlier).
Pacers vs. Bucks predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET 04/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.