The Toronto Blue Jays have a shot at a series sweep over the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto needed some comeback heroics against yesterday to pick up a huge win over an AL East opponent. In the finale, Shane Bieber takes the mound opposite Albert Suarez for Baltimore.
Check out my Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions for Sept. 14, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ryan Mountcastle.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Guerrero over 1.5 bases | Mountcastle 1+ hit (+310)
Blue Jays ML (-205): With Bieber on the mound, the Jays should have a nice pitching advantage.
He may not be at his peak as a starter, but he’s been good enough that the Jays have won three of his four starts this season.
Bieber’s 4.30 ERA isn’t spectacular, but his 27.5% K rate and 3.3% walk rate are both elite.
The underlying statistics show that Bieber hasn’t lost his stuff, but rather he’s still working off the rust and should continue to improve with more reps.
For the Orioles, Suarez will make the start, but I don’t expect him to work more than a few innings.
The 35-year-old was on the 60-day injured list until the start of September and hasn’t pitched more than three innings in his trio of appearances.
So even if he’s solid, the Blue Jays will see a lot of bullpen arms. Baltimore has the eighth-worst bullpen ERA in the majors (4.49).
That all goes before mentioning Toronto’s advantage on offence. The Jays have the third-best WRC+ since the All-Star break (123) and have outscored the Orioles 11-5 through the first two games.
MLB SGP legs
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-112): Guerrero is playing at an MVP-calibre level in the second half of the season, just like last year.
His numbers have been outstanding since the All-Star break, but let me focus on just the 11 games played this month.
- .500 batting average
- 1.265 OPS
- 31 total bases in 50 plate appearances
His 91st-percentile walk rate (12.7%) is always going to be a problem with this type of wager, but he’s just swinging such a hot bat right now that it doesn’t bother me.
Guerrero is 7-4 against this wager in September.
Mountcastle 1+ hit (-190): There are a couple of things to note for this wager.
- Firstly, Mountcastle is playing really well right now. Over his past 25 games, he’s batting .290 (19-6 against this wager).
- He also seems to love hitting against the Jays. Mountcastle is batting .298 with 15 home runs and 53 RBI in 72 games. That is a 43 home run, 119 RBI pace over a 162-game season.
That’s too big a sample size to be solely a coincidence, and Jays fans should take it personally.
But as a bettor, that only increases my confidence in this final leg.
Blue Jays picks as of 8:36 a.m. on 09/14/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.