A battle between two MVP finalists begins on Monday night as Nikola Jokic‘s Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder.
The pregame narrative: Denver only played two days ago, but its blowout win in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Clippers meant that stars like Jokic didn’t need to shoulder a full workload. Jokic has been active as a rebounder and passer against the Thunder all season.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks featuring Chet Holmgren in Game 1 on May 5.
Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks
Best Bet: Jokic over 22.5 rebounds and assists (-112)
One of the biggest knocks on last year’s top-seeded Thunder was their lack of frontcourt size. They addressed that concern in the offseason by bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein (7 feet, 255 pounds), and he’s been solid.
But Jokic has about 30 pounds on Hartenstein, and when push comes to shove — possibly in a literal sense — I’ll still bank on the three-time MVP having his way around the rim.
Let’s look at this prop market by splitting it into two, starting with rebounds.
- The Thunder allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.28), per Betting Pros.
- Jokic had 12+ rebounds in all four games vs. OKC this year.
As for passing, the Thunder allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season. But Jokic still averaged 11.5 assists in his four matchups against the Thunder.
And in the playoffs, Jokic has been among the most active passers in the league.
On a per-game basis, he ranks second in the postseason in assists (10.1), potential assists (18.1), and passes made (75.3).
Jokic averaged 27.3 RA against the Thunder this year, going 3-1 against this line. He had exactly 22 rebounds/assists in the outlier.
Key stat: During the regular season, Jokic averaged 22.9 RA in 70 matchups.
Game 1 prop prediction
Holmgren under 8.5 rebounds (-138): Fading a 7-foot-1 player on a rebound line like this might seem odd. But Holmgren is far from a traditional big.
At just 213 pounds, he’s not known to muscle people around in the paint. Sure, he’s got plenty of length, but he’s also a capable 3-point shooter who spends plenty of time on the perimeter.
Holmgren was 11-for-26 (42.3%) from deep in the first round of the playoffs. As a rebounder, he went 2-2 against this line but had just 10 total boards in the final two games.
During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 8.0 rebounds and went under this number in 18 of 32 games (56.3%). That includes a pair of home games against Denver.
If Hartenstein is matched up with Jokic most of the time, as I expect, this should be a worthwhile fade.
Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.