The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder battle for a spot in the Western Conference final on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Denver staved off elimination at home on Thursday but is a sizeable underdog to win Game 7 at Paycom Center, where OKC is 39-7 this year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander captured the scoring title this season, and the Canadian is odds-on to score 30 points today.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions for May 18, featuring Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren.
Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Nuggets +10.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Holmgren 8+ rebounds (+290)
Nuggets +10.5 (-167): Beating the Thunder at home is a tough ask, and I’m not sure the Nuggets can do it, even with a superhuman effort from Nikola Jokic.
But I do like Denver’s chances of keeping this one close for a few reasons:
- The Nuggets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- They have covered a +10.5 spread in 11 of 13 playoff games, including five of six games this series.
- Denver is 12-9-1 ATS as a road underdog this season, losing those games by an average of just 3.3 points.
Oklahoma City had a historically efficient season, posting the second-best net rating of all time. However, its young core doesn’t have much playoff experience, while the Jokic-led Nuggets have been to and won the NBA Finals.
I can see the Thunder starting this game off slightly shaky, and this coming down to the wire.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-165): One player I trust to fill the basket for OKC is Gilgeous-Alexander, which isn’t a hot take considering the Canadian averaged a league-best 32.7 PPG this year.
SGA has scored 30-plus points in all three home games this series, while shooting a combined 35-of-62 (56.4%) from the field.
Barring a blowout, which I don’t anticipate happening, Gilgeous-Alexander should get plenty of run and take around 20 shots. That type of volume puts us in good shape, especially considering SGA’s frequent trips to the free-throw line.
SGA has scored at least 25 points in 13 of his last 14 games against Denver, reaching this milestone eight times.
Holmgren 8+ rebounds (-278): Holmgren has stepped his game up as a rebounder this series.
- The 7-foot-1 forward is averaging a team-high 10.8 rebounds per game against Denver’s imposing frontcourt.
- He cleared this mark in five straight games, logging double-digit boards in four of them.
- Holmgren is 8-2 vs. this milestone in the playoffs.
I like Holmgren’s chances of having another big night on the glass as long as he stays out of early foul trouble.
Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 9:40 a.m. ET 05/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.