The Houston Rockets host the Denver Nuggets for a heavyweight NBA Cup matchup on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Houston (10-3) and Denver (11-3) are among the Western Conference elites, ranking second and third, respectively, in league-wide net rating. The Rockets are slightly favoured as they search for a sixth-straight win.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Rockets SGP predictions for Nov. 21, featuring Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic.
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Nuggets vs. Rockets predictions
Parlay: Rockets -2.5 | Durant 20+ points | Jokic 2+ threes (+325)
Rockets -2.5 (-106): You could make a solid argument for either team to win this matchup. I want to side with the hotter team, which is also playing at home.
- The Rockets are 9-1 in their last 10 games. In that span, they are leading the league in offensive rating (123.5) and are second in net rating (+12.9).
- Houston has beaten a slew of playoff contenders by double-digits, including the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers.
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The Nuggets are 8-2 in their last 10 games, mind you, while ranking fifth in offensive rating (120.9) and sixth in net rating (+9.9). So, as mentioned, there isn’t much separating these teams.
Still, I like Houston’s scoring depth with Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. all capable of having big nights.
And for what it’s worth, two of Denver’s three losses have come on the road.
NBA SGP legs
Durant 20+ points (-385): Durant has been nearly automatic against this milestone for the better part of two decades.
- The future Hall of Famer started averaging 25.0 PPG in his 2008-09 sophomore season, and hasn’t looked back since.
- Durant is averaging 25.5 PPG in his first 13 games with the Rockets, going 11-2 against this line.
I could end the analysis there, but this should also be a nice matchup for KD.
Denver owns the second-best 3-point defence (31.8%), per Cleaning the Glass, but ranks 20th in defending the mid-range (43.4%) and the rim (68.3%).
Durant doesn’t rely heavily on the deep ball and can do a ton of damage inside the arc.
-> Back Durant and Jokic on Friday night
Jokic 2+ threes (-143): Houston defends the mid-range well but has a leaky perimeter defence. That bodes well for Jokic, who is on a tear from 3-point land in November.
- 2.3 threes/game
- 4.9 attempts/game
- 2+ threes in 6 of 9 games
On the season, Jokic is averaging a 29.1-point triple-double while shooting 40.0% from deep. That doesn’t seem fair, but the Serbian is truly a unicorn.
Jokic has cleared this mark in three of his last five games against Houston while shooting 43.5% beyond the arc.
Nuggets vs. Rockets predictions made at 1:12 p.m. ET Nov. 21, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.