For the fourth and final time this season, the Denver Nuggets face the Sacramento Kings.
The pregame narrative: Denver has dominated this head-to-head matchup in recent meetings, but Sacramento pulled off a stunning road upset when they last met on Nov. 22. Still, the Nuggets are 10-point favourites on Thursday night as they look to build on a 10-game road winning streak.
Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Dec. 11, featuring Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook.
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Nuggets vs. Kings predictions
Parlay: Westbrook 10+ assists | Jokic 12+ rebounds | Nuggets -7.5 (+475)
Westbrook 10+ assists (-108): With De’Aaron Fox gone and Domantas Sabonis (knee) spending a lot of time on the sidelines, the Kings have had to look elsewhere for their primary passer.
Enter Westbrook, who is averaging a team-high 7.3 assists this year. That’s obviously well below the total I’m asking of him tonight, but things have been trending up.
- In his past 12 games without Sabonis, Westbrook is averaging 8.7 APG (5-7 vs. this line).
- He’s 3-2 vs. this milestone in his past five games, posting 14 assists in two of those matchups. And in that five-game span, Westbrook is averaging 16.2 potential assists per game (sixth in the NBA).
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Westbrook is a two-time scoring champ, but his 11.9 field goal attempts per game are nowhere near the 20+ shots he averaged in his heyday.
He’s also a three-time assists leader, as recently as the 2020-21 season, and can clearly still turn it on when needed.
Westbrook finished with 11 assists apiece in his past two games against the Nuggets.
NBA SGP legs
Jokic 12+ rebounds (-152): As much as Sabonis’ absence creates more assist opportunities for Westbrook, I’d say it’s even more notable for what Jokic can do on the glass.
The three-time MVP won’t have to deal with the three-time reigning rebounds champ, which should make things a bit easier.
- At 12.3 rebounds per game, Jokic is actually in line to be the NBA’s rebounding leader this season. And he’s 13-10 vs. this prop so far.
- Jokic is on pace to average more than 12.0 boards for a third consecutive year.
-> Back Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook on Thursday
Even if Sabonis was playing, I’d still like Jokic at this number.
The superstar centre is 7-1 vs. this milestone in his past eight meetings vs. the Kings, averaging 14.0 RPG in that span.
Nuggets -7.5 (-175): The Nuggets lost outright as 11-point home favourites when they last played the Kings. But Denver was playing on a back-to-back, and I’m chalking that up as a fluke.
Prior to that loss, the Nuggets had won seven in a row in this head-to-head matchup — including a 14-point win in Sacramento on Nov. 11.
Denver, which has a one-day rest advantage tonight, is 3-0 ATS in Sacramento since the start of last season. Looking just at this year, the Nuggets are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 ATS on the road.
Without their top two scorers (Sabonis, Zach LaVine), the Kings should struggle against a very strong Denver squad.
Nuggets vs. Kings SGP made at 11:39 a.m. ET Dec. 11, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.