Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to wrap up their first-round series on Thursday night on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers.
The pregame narrative: Jokic is coming off a quiet night offensively, but I’m backing the big man to clear his points total. On L.A.’s side of things, James Harden looks like a prime fade candidate.
Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 of the NBA first-round playoff series.
Clippers vs. Nuggets picks
Best Bet: Jokic over 26.5 points (-108)
Coming off his worst offensive game of the series, is this really the time to back Jokic?
I think so, because Jokic should enter Game 6 with a little more tread on his tires after taking a backseat to Jamal Murray last time out.
Jokic shot just 4-for-13 en route to a 13-point triple-double. Four of his Nuggets teammates outscored him, led by Murray (43 points) and Aaron Gordon (23).
Don’t let one game fool you, though. Jokic is still the leader of the pack in all facets for Denver, and he should be back in the centre of things for Game 6.
The Clippers are one of the best home teams in basketball. As they push to keep their season alive, Jokic should be the one tasked with leading Denver’s offence.
When he last played at Intuit Dome in Game 4, Jokic had 36 points on 14-of-25 shooting.
The three-time MVP averaged a career-best 29.6 PPG this season. He has cashed this bet in 40 of 75 games, regular season and playoffs included.
With 51.1/44.0/71.0 shooting splits in this series, Jokic is always capable of turning it on when his shot volume is high enough.
Key stat: In his past nine potential close-out games, dating back to 2023, Jokic has averaged 30.6 PPG. He’s 7-2 against this prop in those games.
Game 5 prop prediction
Harden under 21.5 points (-125): Harden was excellent in Game 1 of this series, scoring 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting. But he’s been on the decline ever since.
Look at Harden’s shot totals, in order, as the series has progressed: 22, 17, 14, 11 and 9.
That’s right, he only took nine shots in Game 5, behind guys like Ivica Zubac and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
This isn’t a new phenomenon for Harden, who has made a habit of disappearing in critical moments of previous postseasons.
In elimination games in 2022-24, Harden shot a combined 12-for-36 (.333) and scored just 36 total points. He went 0-3 against this points prop.
Harden has also fallen under 20.5 points in four straight games.
Nuggets vs. Clippers prop picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET 04/30/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.