There are five games on Wednesday’s NHL slate, and I have two props worth taking.
The pregame narrative: Kyle Connor and the Winnipeg Jets have a plus matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. I also have a play on Matthew Tkachuk to record a power-play point.
Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 18.
NHL prop picks
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Best bet: Connor to score (+114)
I’ll gladly take this price on a player of Connor’s calibre with the type of matchup the Jets face.
Winnipeg has been dominating Anaheim, winning the last eight matchups with a +20 goal differential.
The Ducks haven’t been doing themselves any favours, either.
- 32nd in shots allowed per game (33.2)
- 27th in penalty kill percentage (72.5%)
- T-18th in goals allowed per game (3.07)
When you flip the script, this is where the plus matchup presents itself.
The Jets rank first in power-play percentage (31.7%) and third in goals per game (3.67).
Connor should be circling his calendar every time the Ducks are due up. He has 12 goals, seven assists and a plus-9 rating in 17 career games against Anaheim.
Over his past seven games, Connor has six goals and 11 points with a 20.7 shooting percentage — well above his career average of 14.8%.
His career points per game (0.93) is impressive in its own right, but this season, he’s performing at a career-high 1.21 PPG pace and is top 10 in the NHL in shots/game (3.48).
Key stat: Anaheim has the highest expected goals against per 60 minutes in the NHL (3.7), per Natural Stat Trick.
Quick pick
Tkachuk over 0.5 power-play points (+175): I’m intrigued by this matchup with two top-10 teams in the NHL squaring off.
Although they’re lower in the standings, the Panthers are road favourites against the Wild, who are 7-3-0 in their last 10.
My perspective is the special team’s disparity will have a lot to do with the outcome of this game.
Florida owns the sixth-best power play (26.0%), whereas Minnesota owns the third-worst penalty kill (70.7%).
Tkachuk leads all Panthers skaters in power-play points (13) and power-play ice time (3:51).
The former Calgary Flame has also been on a heater in December, picking up six goals and six assists in seven games.
I’m anticipating a good old-fashioned barn burner as the over has hit in seven of the last 10 meetings between Minnesota and Florida.
Picks made at 11:56 a.m. 12/18/2024.
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