Thursday’s NHL goal predictions feature two players from Canadian teams.
The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs are rolling, and I like the captain’s chances of producing against the San Jose Sharks. Elsewhere, look for Jake DeBrusk to come through at plus money against a bottom-feeder.
Check out my NHL goal picks for Dec. 11.
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NHL goal picks Dec. 11
Best Bet: DeBrusk to score (+180)
Saying the Buffalo Sabres are bottom-feeders while backing a player on the Canucks is not unlike the pot calling the kettle black.
Both teams are a mess, but I think Vancouver has a chance to rout Buffalo tonight.
Four games into their current road trip, the Sabres have allowed an alarming number of goals. Nineteen, to be exact.
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Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to be in the net, and he’s having a disastrous season.
The sixth-year goalie is posting a career-worst .884 SV%, and the defenders in front of him aren’t doing much to help.
Buffalo is a bottom-10 team defensively in shots, chances, and xG allowed on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.
That leads me to DeBrusk, who has been the most active Canuck offensively, despite his modest eight-goal total. He leads the team in:
- xG (13.62)
- Scoring chances (103)
- Hgh-danger chances (66)
- Shots (85)
DeBrusk’s 9.4 shooting percentage is well below his career average and last year’s 16.4% mark. This seems like a good matchup for him to get off the schneid.
Key stat: Buffalo is allowing the fourth-most goals per game (3.53).
NHL predictions
Matthews to score (+105): The Maple Leafs are rounding into form, despite the lack of primary scoring from guys like Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares.
Toronto is 4-0-1 in its last five games with just four goals from the trio (three from Matthews).
That’s a good sign for the Leafs, assuming the leadership group gets back on track. Tonight seems like a good time for all three to produce, and I specifically like Matthews’ odds of recording his 13th goal of the season.
-> Bet on Matthews and the Maple Leafs tonight!
The captain is coming off one of his best games of the season, firing eight shots on net and scoring an empty-netter while playing sound defence.
He’s now averaging 4.4 shots per game in his last five outings and is 3-2 against this line.
San Jose ranks 31st in shots allowed per game and is inside the bottom six for chances and scoring chances allowed on a 60-minute basis.
NHL goal picks made at 10:44 a.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.