A pair of quarterbacks with some upside in the running game are featured in this week’s NFL prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen is a nearly unstoppable force near the goal line, and I’m keying on his anytime TD prop at plus money. Earlier in the day on Sunday, Jaxson Dart should be leaned on more heavily in the ground game at home.
Check out my top NFL Week 9 prop bets, featuring a prediction on Kyren Williams.
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NFL Week 9 prop bets
Best bet: Dart over 37.5 rushing yards (-113)
The New York Giants suffered a massive blow on offence last week with running back Cam Skattebo suffering a season-ending ankle injury.
Without Skattebo, the Giants will turn to Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary out of the backfield. But the most dynamic rusher will be Dart.
-> Bet on Jaxson Dart’s prop markets vs. 49ers
- The rookie quarterback hasn’t been shy about using his legs so far, rushing for 195 yards in five starts. That works out to 39.0 yards/game and a 3-2 record vs. this prop.
- While Dart has rushed for 4.5 yards/carry this season, the combo of Tracy and Singletary has rushed for 3.3 yards/carry.
Could New York try a more pass-heavy approach with Skattebo out? Maybe, but the team lost star wideout Malik Nabers to a season-ending injury weeks ago, and Skattebo was second on the squad in receptions.
Dart is averaging 8.2 rush attempts as a starter, and I’m expecting that volume to hold up. If it does, this is a perfectly attainable yardage mark to clear.
Key stat: In two home starts, Dart is 2-0 vs. this prop while rushing for 112 yards on 23 carries.
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Best NFL picks
Williams under 75.5 rushing yards (-113): Given that the Los Angeles Rams are the biggest favourites of the week (-14 vs. Saints), you might think this is setting up to be a massive game for Williams.
I’m not so sure, though.
- Williams has gone under 75.5 rushing yards in five of seven games. He’s had 14 or fewer carries in four straight games.
- Last time out, the Rams bulldozed the Jaguars, 35-7. But due to the nature of the blowout, Williams split carries evenly with RB2 Blake Corum, 12-12.
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If another blowout ensues — and there’s plenty of reasons to expect that with the Saints rookie QB Tyler Shough making his first start — I’d expect L.A. to lighten the load for Williams.
Let’s also remember that Puka Nacua (ankle), the NFL’s target leader, is expected to return to play a full game for the first time since Week 5. He’ll surely eat into opportunities that might otherwise go to Williams.
Allen anytime TD (+105): Allen tends to take matters into his own hands when he faces the Kansas City Chiefs. With that in mind, this plus-money price for him to score has my attention.
- In eight matchups vs. the Chiefs since 2021, Allen is averaging 10.8 rush attempts and 55.6 rush yards.
- For context, he’s averaging 6.9 attempts and 38.4 yards since the 2021 season overall.
- Allen has scored four TDs in his past four matchups vs. KC, cashing this bet three times in that span.
Allen called his own number twice last week, scoring a pair of TDs from the one-yard line. He now has nine carries inside the five-yard line this season.
NFL prop bets made at 3:09 p.m. ET on 10/30/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.