Our staff’s NFL Week 9 predictions comprise two ATS picks, one moneyline bet, and one player prop.
The Week 9 narrative: Two of this week’s biggest favourites are featured in the ATS section, as the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions look to author convincing wins at home. For prop bettors, find out why Jahmyr Gibbs is poised to run wild in the Motor City.
Check out our NFL Week 9 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend.
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NFL Week 9 best bets
These NFL Week 9 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Jordan Horrobin and Avery Perri.
ATS picks
Rams -14 (-110): Laying 14 points in the NFL is scary, but there’s a reason this number is so big.
Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough makes his first start for the 1-7 Saints. The 26-year-old second-round pick is hardly a blue-chip prospect and takes over an offence averaging just 16.0 PPG.
- Shough is playing behind an offensive line which ranks dead last in pass block win rate.
- Spencer Rattler, who was just benched, was sacked 18 times in eight starts.
- Los Angeles ranks eighth in pressure rate and second in QB sacks (26).
With all that said, Shough’s NFL debut will probably be one to forget.
And then there’s Los Angeles’ offence, which is coming off an emphatic 35-point performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
All signs point to star wide receiver Puka Nacua returning, which is the cherry on top for this wager. Don’t be surprised if the Rams win this game by 30.
-Perri
Lions -9 (-109): Looks like Avery and I are both willing to lay a bunch of points this week, and I think both picks are perfectly warranted.
In Detroit’s case, I’m backing a team that is 3-0 ATS at home this season with a +70 point differential. Also, the Lions are 3-0 ATS at home in their past three matchups vs. the Vikings, covering this number each time.
Detroit is coming off a bye as well, and that rest advantage just feels like a bonus.
Don’t expect J.J. McCarthy to keep up with the Lions’ No. 3 ranked scoring offence.
-Horrobin
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Moneyline bet
49ers to win (-136): This feels like a nice bounce-back spot for the Niners, who are coming off a dud on the road against Houston.
New York is without Malik Nabers (knee) and Cam Skattebo (ankle) for the season. Jaxson Dart has played well, but I can’t see him willing the Giants to victory against a sound 49ers defence.
And even if he can muster some offence, New York’s defence has conceded 71 points in its last two games. The G-Men are giving up the third-most rushing yards per game, so expect a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey in this one.
New York is just 11-31 over the last three seasons, with a league-worst -9.8 average margin of victory.
-Perri
NFL Week 9 best bets: Player props
Gibbs over 71.5 rushing yards (-110): I can see Detroit, a 9-point favourite at the time of writing, laying a beating on Minnesota at home. If that holds, Gibbs should get a boatload of touches
The Vikings’ defence has looked awfully suspect following their Week 6 bye. They gave up 28 points to the Philadelphia Eagles and 37 points to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Subpar QB play from Carson Wentz didn’t help, but can we really expect McCarthy to be much better?
-> Bet on Gibbs against the Vikings
On the whole, Minnesota’s defence ranks sixth in EPA per dropback and 25th in EPA per rush. Even in a close game, Dan Campbell should be incentivized to run the ball.
Moreover, Gibbs has been the alpha dog in Detroit’s RB tandem:
- Gibbs: 104 carries, 526 yards (5.1 YPA)
- David Montgomery: 78 carries, 355 yards (4.6 YPA)
Gibbs is also coming off his best game of the season — rushing for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts. I expect him to follow that up with another monster performance.
-Perri
NFL Week 9 best bets made at 12 p.m. ET on 10/30/2025.
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