The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ wild ride continued in Week 6, but they’ll put their 5-1 record on the line with another big test on Monday Night Football this week.
The pregame narrative: On the road to face the Detroit Lions, the Buccaneers are an enticing underdog play in the Week 7 slate — despite dealing with a myriad of injuries. In Sunday’s action, look for the Jacksonville Jaguars to put up a fight at home vs. the Los Angeles Rams.
Check out my top Week 7 NFL upset picks for games on Oct. 19 and 20.
NFL upset picks: Week 7
Best bet: Jaguars moneyline (+135)
After playing at home in two straight weeks, the Jaguars head out to their second home — London, England — for their 14th international game since 2013.
It’s a long haul for both sides, but it beats the travel schedule the Rams have had in the past three weeks: from Southern California, to the Mid-Atlantic, and now across the pond.
L.A. earned a 14-point win in Week 6 against Baltimore, but it wasn’t as encouraging as that might sound at first blush.
- The Rams only scored 17 points against what has been a miserable Ravens defence, which had allowed an NFL-high 29.5 PPG entering the matchup.
- Despite only scoring three points, Baltimore finished ahead of L.A. in time of possession, first downs, total yards and yards per kick/punt return.
Puka Nacua left the game with a sprained ankle and didn’t return. Obviously, the absence of the NFL’s receptions leader would be significant on Sunday.
At the time of this writing, it’s too soon to know if Nacua will be available. He’s been deemed “day-to-day,” but with a bye week to follow, it’d be no surprise if the Rams kept him on the shelf.
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its past five home games, with a pair of upset wins in that span.
Key stat: The Jaguars have won straight up as underdogs in two of their past three games (vs. Chiefs, at 49ers).
NFL underdog predictions
Buccaneers moneyline (+190): I still have a ton of respect for the Lions despite their dud of an effort on Sunday Night Football this past week (a 30-17 loss in Kansas City).
But how can you not love what the Bucs are up to right now?
MVP chants are growing louder for quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has led four fourth-quarter comebacks already to lift Tampa Bay to a 5-1 start.
The scary part of this upset pick is that Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving are all expected to miss the game. And Mike Evans, who hasn’t played since Week 3, is a question mark.
But Mayfield has figured it out with a skeleton crew to this point, and his defence is built to disrupt Detroit’s run-heavy approach.
Tampa Bay’s run defence ranks No. 1 in EPA and No. 4 in success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Detroit has a banged-up secondary and is just two weeks removed from allowing 24 points to the Jake Browning-led Bengals. Even a depleted Tampa offence should be putting up some points.
NFL upset picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 10/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.