Our staff’s Week 6 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and a prop bet.
The Week 6 narrative: Rest advantages are huge in the NFL, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a massive one over the Cleveland Browns. Elsewhere, Justin Fields is a solid candidate to run wild against the Denver Broncos in this week’s London game.
Check out our NFL Week 6 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend.
NFL Week 6 best bets
These NFL Week 6 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Jordan Horrobin.
ATS picks
Steelers -5.5 (-110): The NFL schedule makers really hosed Cleveland here.
The Steelers are 3-1 and coming off a bye, while the Browns are returning from London, playing their third consecutive game in a wildly different time zone.
Cleveland (1-4) isn’t a good team to begin with, particularly given its horrible offensive numbers:
- 32nd in points per game (14.6)
- 30th in EPA per play (-0.164)
- 27th in yards per game (288.2)
- 26th in pressure rate allowed (25.6%)
The Browns have failed to score 20 points in 10 consecutive games. I can’t imagine a rookie quarterback snapping that streak against a well-rested Steelers defence on the road.
-Perri
Falcons +4.5 (-110): The Falcons have the NFL’s ugliest defeat this season, losing 30-0 in Carolina a few weeks ago.
But they covered this number in their other three games, including a last-second loss to Tampa Bay and a 16-point win as underdogs in Minnesota.
Coming off a bye, Atlanta has a distinct rest advantage — and a home-field advantage — over a Buffalo squad that hasn’t left the tri-state area all season. The Bills are on a three-game ATS losing streak.
-Horrobin
Seattle puts stellar road record to the test
Seahawks moneyline (-106): Seattle has a long journey to Jacksonville, but with an extra day of rest, I don’t see that being much of an issue.
The Seahawks have a pair of one-score losses against quality divisional opponents (49ers, Buccaneers) and have been one of the strongest overall teams so far. Their +41 point differential is the fourth-best in the NFL.
Oh, and Seattle is 9-1 on the road since the start of last season.
The Jaguars somehow beat the Chiefs despite losing the turnover battle and being outgained by 157 yards. I view this as a letdown spot for the AFC South’s surprise upstart.
-Horrobin
NFL Week 6 best bets: Player props
Fields over 35.5 rushing yards (-120): On paper, this seems like the perfect matchup for Fields to run wild.
New York doesn’t have any stud receiving weapons outside of Garrett Wilson, and he should be completely locked down by the league’s best corner, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II.
Denver also boasts an elite pass rush, ranking ninth in win rate, according to ESPN.com.
Fields will be forced to use his legs to extend plays if no one is open and he’s under constant pressure, and we’ve already seen him do that plenty.
He is 3-1 against this line so far while averaging 51 yards per game.
Let me leave you with one disclaimer: Denver has allowed 15 total rushing yards to opposing QBs this season. But that doesn’t faze me. Fields is an elite running QB who can make anyone miss.
-Perri
NFL Week 6 best bets made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 10/09/2025.
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