A pick on Sunday’s international game headlines my NFL Week 5 upset predictions.
The pregame narrative: The Cleveland Browns have been fiesty in the early goings and could be a problem for the Minnesota Vikings in London. Later on, take the value on the New England Patriots against the undefeated Buffalo Bills.
Check out my top Week 5 NFL upset picks.
NFL upset picks: Week 5
Best bet: Browns moneyline (+135)
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Even though Cleveland is 1-3, there is a lot to like moving forward.
- The defence is legit: Getting lit up by the Detroit Lions’ offence is something that will happen. Cleveland still leads the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.1).
- Quinshon Judkins is a star: The first-round running back leads rookies in rushing yards per game (79.0).
The Vikings just got demolished on the ground by the Pittsburgh Steelers with Kenneth Gainwell as the lead back. He ran the ball 19 times for a career-high 99 yards.
And while there’s hope that J.J. McCarthy returns, the Vikings may remain very cautious with their young quarterback’s high ankle sprain.
That leaves Carson Wentz. He needed to do more in Week 4, and he struggled in the first half. He did finish with 350 yards passing, but his decision-making and two turnovers cost Minnesota in the end.
Even if McCarthy comes back, he hasn’t played football in a few weeks and should struggle against the Browns’ pressure.
Key stat: Cleveland has the fourth-highest sack percentage in the NFL (9.24%).
NFL underdog predictions
Patriots moneyline (+340): How good do the Patriots look so far?
Drake Maye has been incredible as a sophomore. His play, mixed with some strong defence, has New England sitting at 2-2.
Josh Allen is a pretty sizable favourite to win MVP, and Maye has been on par with him.
- Allen: 964 yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 109.7 passer rating
- Maye: 988 yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 109.4 passer rating
This New England squad is much better than in past years.
Buffalo is 4-0 but had issues putting away the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints in the past two weeks.
The Bills are the better team, no doubt, but there’s certainly value on the Patriots at this price.
New England is 2-2 against Buffalo over the past two seasons.
NFL upset picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 09/29/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.